Ingen bliver vindere af handelskrige – heller ikke de lande, der tror, de kan drage fordel af et skifte i handelsstrømmene, viser en analyse fra Nordea
Uddrag fra Nordea:
The trade war has been the hot topic for the global economy and financial
markets in 2019. Increased uncertainty has been destructive for existing valueadded chains and has held back investment decisions. A closer look at the trade
statistics confirms that the trade war is a losing game, as the list of countries
managing to gain some benefits from the redirection of trade flows is very short.
So far, the ability to gain from the trade war does not seem to be the crucial
factor for interest rates and currencies in the EM space. Our hunch is that the
financial market implications for the very few trade war winners may only
become materially visible over time as the benefits accumulate.
CNY: Trade talks still the deciding factor
The agreement on the phase one trade deal has brought relief to the CNY at
year-end. However, the talks between the US and China will continue to drive
the CNY in 2020.
RUB: Cementing its strength
The flipside of RUB appreciation throughout 2019 is its undervaluation at the start of
the year. As this undervaluation has gradually been corrected, the RUB’s ability to
outperform other EM currencies is diminishing.
PLN: Mixed outlook for 2020
The risk picture for the PLN looks mixed ahead of 2020. We expect the PLN to
remain weak in the coming quarters before a possible rebound in the second half of
the year.
ARS & BRL: Time is money
Argentina is heading towards a default, while political instability in Brazil is
increasing. The ARS/USD has weakened by 37% YTD and the BRL/USD is down 5%.
With bleak sentiment regarding the first half of 2020 and high uncertainty, risks are
firmly tilted to the downside.
