JPMorgan analyserer dollaren og kommer til den konklusion, at de seneste måneders svækkelse vil fortsætte på grund af en rente nær nul og på grund af store handels- og budgetunderskud. Amerikanske investorer bør kigge mere på verden uden for USA og især Emerging Markets, det vil i praksis sige de asiatiske markeder. Markederne dér vil udvikle sig stærkere end markederne i industrilandene.

Uddrag fra JPMorgan:

Thought of the week

The U.S. dollar (USD) has been on a wild ride since the beginning of the year.

As COVID-19 spread globally and markets came under pressure, the dollar began appreciating sharply, and was up 6.7% year-to-date at its peak on March 20.

This was primarily driven by an increase in investor demand for U.S. dollars given the currency’s historical “safe haven” status.

Since then, however, the dollar has fallen -9.2%, driven by a confluence of factors including high valuations, falling nominal and real U.S. interest rates, a substantial trade deficit and surging fiscal deficit, a unified fiscal package out of Europe, and slowing COVID-19 case growth outside of the U.S. which has led to better international economic data.

However, the question for investors is whether this weakness will continue. In our view, the dollar should depreciate over the long run, as the Federal Reserve looks set to keep rates near zero and both the trade and fiscal deficits are likely to remain wide.

As a result, investors may want to consider adding international equities to their portfolios, particularly emerging markets, as dollar weakness tends to coincide with rising commodity prices, a pick up in global growth and emerging market outperformance relative to developed market peers.