JPMorgan stiller nogle relevante spørgsmål om finansdisciplinen i to sektorer, der har afgørende betydning i de kommende år, hvor der skal investeres heftigt i udvindingen af nye metaller til den grønne industri og i energisektorer for at klare klima-målene. Kravene fra ESG-investorer vil få en stor rolle for udviklingen. Investorerne har i de seneste 10-15 år undgået energiselskaberne, mere end europæiske banker, skriver JPMorgan i en besk kommentar. Men der er tegn på forandringer. Der er ved at komme mere finansiel disciplin i energiselskaberne, der er meget gældsatte. Mineselskaber er også på vej, og de er blevet bedre end energiselskaberne i at skære gæld væk.
Capital discipline in the mining and energy sectors is strengthening
With alarming news of energy shortages in Europe and Asia, U.S. consumers facing significantly higher heating bills this winter and talk of environmental, social and governance (ESG) driving demand for a whole range of industrial commodities, we took a look at the companies in the energy and metals sector.
Even more than European banks, energy companies have in general been best avoided over the past 10 to 15 years. This has much more to do with poor capital discipline and wayward investments than with any trend in oil and gas prices themselves.
But there are signs of change. Capital return is now the mantra—at least in the U.S.—along with deleveraging some very stretched balance sheets.
Meanwhile, the leading metals companies are further into this process, with capital spending slashed by more than 60% for the big six over the past decade and cash flows now strong enough to already repay huge swaths of debt and reward long-suffering shareholders (EXHIBIT 2). Now many energy companies are following suit, although their debt levels remain elevated.
What this all means for the supply of traditional carbon energy and newly in-demand metals such as lithium and nickel is clear, especially when the constraints of ESG-minded investors suggest that new capital for these sectors will remain limited.
The leading mining companies are ahead of energy companies in slashing capital spending and repaying debt
Source: Bloomberg, company reports. Mining companies: Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP Group, Vale SA-SP ADR, Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta. Energy companies: BP PLC, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total Energies.
