JPMorgan skriver i en analyse af de dramatiske forskelle på kursudviklingen i det seneste halve år, at investorerne skal fokusere meget skarpt på risikofaktorerne og lede efter muligheder uden for de sædvanlige, der har domineret markedet de seneste ti år. 

Uddrag fra JPMorgan:

Taking stock

Many of our investors see a good chance of better relative returns from a wider range of stocks. The difference in valuations between perceived winners and losers remains as wide as ever in most markets, but with clear signs of a strong rebound in economic activity from very depressed levels, we think that investors should pay close attention to risk exposures and look for opportunities outside the usual suspects that have dominated returns for a decade.

Our research team has been rapidly recalibrating near-term earnings forecasts since the onset of the shutdown, cutting over 30% from our expectations for 2020 and 20% for 2021.

At this point, we think that we’ve captured the full scale of the disruption, and we’ve even seen reasons in recent weeks to increase numbers in a handful of cases. Where we have reduced forecasts since the onset of COVID-19, industry differences are far more important than regions.

The banking sector stands out once again, accounting for around 15% of the base earnings power of companies in developed markets but fully 25% of the cuts in dollar terms, with higher provisions wiping out half the sector’s profits for 2020. While the banks are not the cause of the crisis this time around, and are far better capitalized than in 2008, there is no avoiding the impact of an economic shutdown on leveraged balance sheets.

Energy sector profits have been wiped out, and we’ve cut forecasts for automobiles by over 70%; these two groups account for another big part of the overall shortfall. Meanwhile, the giant technology and health care sectors have been relatively unscathed, with profits for this year only around 5% less than we had expected back in January (EXHIBIT 1).

Technology and health care have been relatively unscathed, with other sectors hard hit

EXHIBIT 1: EARNINGS REVISIONS FOR 2020, TOP 3 AND BOTTOM 3 SECTORS, JAN 2020 TO MID-JUNE 2020

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Revisions on developed markets from January 2020 to mid-June 2020.

Longer term, we expect two broad impacts on corporate profitability: first, an acceleration of existing structural changes (which is now very much the consensus view), and second, a drag on profits from a more conservative approach to many issues, including supply chains and share repurchases. But the biggest impacts on our forecasts are more short term and transient in nature.