JPMorgan har analyseret udviklingen af high tech aktier og konkluderer, at de udgør en usædvanligt høj andel af aktieindeksene. Er de overvurderede? Er der en boble? Det tror JPMorgan ikke, fordi de største har haft en usædvanligt høj indtjening. Det gælder ikke mindst Microsoft. Udvikling af software som cloud computing giver en langt højere indtjening end produktion af hardware som smartphones. Men JPM advarer også mod eufori. Google har verdensrekord i at nå en indtjening på 10 milliarder dollar på blot otte år. Mindst fem producenter af el-biler har tilsvarende mål, men JPM tvivler på, at det kan lykkes.
Some big growth stocks still look reasonably priced
After compounding at 20% returns for a decade, the leading technology companies represent an unusually large proportion of equity indices.
In the U.S., the top 10 names account for almost 30% of the value of the S&P 500. Is this a classic bubble? We’re not so sure.
For a start, these companies are exceptionally profitable, as evidenced yet again by a stunning set of earnings reports this quarter. Microsoft, for example, is generating more than USD 1 of free cash flow for every USD 3 in revenues. Rarely if ever have we seen such remarkable profitability at this scale. And the growth trends driving these profits look set to continue for many years to come.
Cloud computing still accounts for less than 20% of technology spending; 50% seems a plausible medium-term target. As a result, these stocks should continue to deserve their premium valuations for the foreseeable future.
Of course, not all growth stocks are created equal. Software profits look more durable to us than earnings for hardware, such as smartphones. And while the valuations of the biggest companies seem broadly rational, we note some clear areas of excess in mid cap stocks and some of the most popular investment themes.
Consider: At least five electric vehicle companies have projected USD 10 billion of revenues within seven years of earning their first dollar. The current record for this achievement, held by Google, is eight years, making these claims in aggregate highly implausible.
But overall, many of our portfolio managers favor a balanced approach, investing in both long-term winners and the newly popular beneficiaries of the recovery in the industrial and financial sectors, something we highlighted in our last quarterly note.
