JPMorgan hæfter sig ved, at virksomhederne generelt får en meget høj indtjening i år. De er kommet lynhurtigt gennem corona-krisen. Også i 2022 ventes en høj indtjening. Men samtidig påpeger JPM, at aktiekurserne er kommet på et meget højt niveau, så høj indtjening i virksomhederne vil ikke nødvendigvis give et særlig stort afkast for investorerne. Der har været megen spekulation på markedet, så investorerne skal være forsigtige. De bør lægge vægt på kvalitetsselskaber og dermed være meget selektive i deres valg.
Uddrag fra JPMorgan:
Global Equity Views 3Q 2021
In Brief
- Corporate profits continue to recover at an impressive pace, already breaking records around the world. The gains are very broad by region and industry, and we expect robust growth in 2022 as well.
- But high valuations, especially for fast-growing companies, restrain our enthusiasm. Most of our team expect average returns from markets, but we see good opportunities for stock selection, especially for value- and quality-oriented investors. Financials and high-quality industrials remain featured in many of our strategies.
Taking stock
Corporate profits continue to rebound at a tremendous pace and will comfortably exceed previous record levels this year. One year after the pandemic hit, we took a look at how our forecasts have changed.
We expected an acceleration of existing structural changes in favor of technology-driven disruption, internet commerce, virtual banking, cloud adoption and the like. That has proved correct, and, if anything, the changes have been even faster than expected.
But the biggest surprise has been the rapid recovery in the worst-hit industries. That reflects generous monetary and fiscal policy, strong financing conditions and, of course, the effectiveness of coronavirus vaccines. Since our last Investors Quarterly, three months ago, our near-term expectations have again been revised higher, with the financial sector and industrial companies once again the biggest drivers. But the gains are very broad-based by industry and geography.
This quarter will mark the peak rate of change in profits, but we remain pretty optimistic about the outlook. Monetary policy is generally still very accommodative, although financial conditions have tightened mildly in China. Consumers are spending freely, and companies seem very able to pass on higher costs.
But with prices again moving higher, many stocks seem expensive from the perspective of our research team. An expected decline in valuations offsets part of the anticipated profit growth over the next five years, and our overall return expectations are modest.
Although we expect the fundamentals of profit growth to remain strong, some caution is probably warranted in the near term after the tremendous gains made over the past year. The feverish speculative mood apparent in the early months of the year has cooled somewhat. Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have fallen from favor in the U.S., and the “meme” stocks pursued aggressively by individual speculators have dropped again in recent weeks. But equity funds continue to attract strong inflows around the world.
As the momentum of the U.S. economic recovery has reached a peak, the fast-growing companies that have dominated returns over the last decade have again led the market, driving valuations back to extreme levels in some cases.
Many of the recently popular beneficiaries of the reopening look fully priced, too, including many airlines and hotels (Exhibit 1). Investors have shown a strong appetite for taking risk in both new growth companies and the most beaten-down casualties of the COVID-19 crisis.
Meanwhile, the virtues of high quality, steady-growth stocks have been overlooked, and on many metrics quality as an investment attribute is looking attractively priced.
Some reopening stocks are expensive … as are many stay-at-home winners
Exhibit 1: Ranges of the cross-sectional median forward P/E STM*