Resume af teksten:
En fornyet eskalering i Mellemøsten har genoplivet investorernes fokus på geopolitiske risici, hvilket påvirker energipriser og valutamarkeder. Energiomkostninger har påvirket obligationernes renter og styrket den amerikanske dollar, ligesom i de første måneder af Iran-krigen. Samtidig forventes det, at faldende benzinpriser i USA reducerer inflationen i juni, hvilket kunne mindske behovet for renteforhøjelser fra Federal Reserve. I Europa er der fokus på selskabernes resultater, hvor Stoxx 600 Index forudser en årlig vækst i indtjening på 12,4% i Q2, hovedsageligt drevet af olie- og gassektoren. Schweiziske aktier, der primært består af sundhedssektoren og forbrugsvarer, forventes at drage fordel af en diversificeret markedsstrategi, på trods af svagere første halvår i 2026. Dette sker i en periode, hvor den globale markedsydelse bliver mere bredt fordelt, og makroøkonomiske forhold fortsætter med at udvikle sig.
Fra Julius Bär:
With vacation plans taking centre stage, one might expect markets to drift into summer mode. Instead, a renewed escalation in the Middle East is reminding investors that geopolitical risks remain firmly on the radar. Energy prices are once again in the driving seat of cross-asset moves, particularly in the more macro markets like fixed income and currencies.
The rebound in energy prices since earlier in the month, when markets saw a credible path to a lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed bond yields higher and the US dollar stronger. In other words, this is the playbook we saw in the first months of the Iran war. An uneven, and occasionally frustrating, negotiation process should not come as a surprise. For now, we see little reason to alter portfolio strategy heading into the summer break. While headlines may remain noisy, we continue to see strong incentives for all sides to avoid a prolonged escalation.
US inflation: The peak is a relief for the hawkish Fed
Looking ahead to this week, we are picking up plenty of Fed policy path signals. US inflation in June is set to provide some relief for the Fed, which has continued to express concerns about high inflation and adopted a rather hawkish stance on future monetary policy at the last FOMC meeting in mid-June. Half of the FOMC members believe that a rate hike before the end of the year is appropriate, given that inflation increased from 2.4% to 4.2% in the first half of the year, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices.
Since the fragile easing of US-Iran tensions in the Middle East, US gasoline prices have declined by 10% in June alone and by around 5% so far in July. This should help drive down the US inflation rate in June, marking May as the peak for inflation. Lower energy prices will also reduce upstream price pressure in the months to come.
At the same time, producer price inflation in June will show little sign of relief. Besides energy prices, inflation dynamics have been affected by some conceptual mismeasurement in the areas of software and accessories, as well as financial services, though these predominantly affect the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation: the deflator for personal consumption expenditures. These mismeasurements are scheduled to be corrected by the end of September 2026, with the potential to reduce PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation by around 20 basis points.
The easing of inflationary pressure, whether due to lower energy prices or to the correction of mismeasurement issues, will mitigate the risk of inflation leading to higher wages and more inflation pressure, allowing FOMC members to drop their demand for higher rates. We expect the Fed to keep its policy rates at their current levels.
European equities: Q2 earnings in focus
Meanwhile, European earnings move into focus this week, with approximately 16% of the Stoxx 600 Index due to report. The earnings season reaches its peak in the final week of July, when 204 companies (40% of index weight) publish results.
Consensus expects Q2 earnings for the Stoxx 600 Index to rise 12.4% year-on-year. However, the headline figure overstates the underlying improvement, as oil & gas accounts for most of the increase (84% year-on-year). Excluding the oil & gas companies, earnings rise by only 4.6% year-on-year.
Among growth-sensitive sectors, consumer cyclicals (15.6%) and industrials (10.2% year-on-year) are leading, while banks are likely to slow to mid-single digits (7.2% year-on-year) before recovering in the second half of the year. Although the automotive sector is seeing positive growth for the first time since 2023, it remains the weakest sector for revisions, alongside continued downgrades in other consumer sectors (luxury, travel, and consumer defensives).
An important observation is that the earnings gap between European and US stocks is expected to narrow from Q2 onwards and potentially close by Q4. This would support the broadening thesis as the stagflationary shock fades and investors look beyond crowded technology stocks.
A confirmation of strong guidance from cyclical sectors could shift the stance on European equities as macroeconomic risks ease further. The macro backdrop supports this view. Despite the recent flare-up in tensions, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, Brent has fallen below USD 80, and recent data suggests a steady recovery in Europe. In this environment of lower upside inflation risks and the potential for positive growth surprises, cyclical sectors show the strongest catch-up potential, although caution remains on consumer sectors until earnings revisions improve.
Swiss equities: A different source of returns
Swiss equities lagged global markets in the first half of 2026 despite delivering positive returns. The reason had little to do with weakening fundamentals and much more with the narrow nature of this year’s rally. Global equities continued to be driven by a handful of large technology and AI-related companies, particularly in the US, while Switzerland has very limited exposure to these areas.
Its market is dominated by healthcare, consumer defensives, and financials – sectors that typically struggle to keep pace when investors are chasing growth and momentum. These characteristics, however, have historically supported performance during more challenging market environments.
Swiss companies continue to offer resilient earnings, strong pricing power, and attractive valuations relative to many international peers. The Swiss market provides exposure to sectors that are underrepresented in global benchmarks, including pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, nutrition, luxury goods and specialised industrial businesses.
These companies typically combine stable earnings growth with strong balance sheets and have historically delivered attractive risk-adjusted returns. Moreover, some of the sectors that dominate the Swiss market could regain leadership if economic growth moderates, bond yields decline, or market volatility returns. Healthcare and consumer defensives have repeatedly outperformed when investors shifted their focus from growth to earnings resilience.
What investors need to know
As market performance broadens out in the second half of 2026, Swiss equities should be well positioned to benefit. In an increasingly concentrated global equity landscape, diversification remains key, particularly beyond the technology trade that has dominated recent returns.
At the same time, the broader macro backdrop continues to evolve. Energy prices remain a key driver of short-term market movements, while easing inflationary pressures could reduce the need for further policy tightening. European earnings momentum, although uneven, may also improve as cyclical sectors catch up and the earnings gap with the US narrows.
Against this backdrop, maintaining a balanced perspective remains important. Markets are likely to navigate a mix of geopolitical developments, policy signals, and earnings outcomes in the months ahead, reinforcing the importance of diversification and patience across regions and sectors.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/_doQkFGaQUSL6I1mvhMKgwNAh2EZm-Qfiqw5eg0NoCdQJ8-dM_wFQjucQCsNe1zrEw
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