Resume af teksten:
Kinas økonomiske vækst aftog i 2. kvartal til 4,3% år-til-år, hvilket er den svageste vækst siden pandemien. Den indenlandske økonomi var under pres med faldende forbrug, investeringer og aktivitet i ejendomssektoren. Offentlig udgift støttede mindre, da regeringen skruede ned for udgifterne efter en kraftig indsats i 1. kvartal. Eksporten oplevede vækst takket være efterspørgslen efter grøn teknologi og højteknologiske produkter. Trods styrken i visse sektorer lykkedes det ikke at modvirke den generelle svaghed i den indenlandske efterspørgsel. Kina opretholder sin globale position i strategisk vigtige industrier, især indenfor AI-drevet biopharma. Her spiller Kinas omfattende sundhedsdata og teknologiske kapacitet en stor rolle. AI i biopharma accelererer processen fra opdagelse til klinisk validering, mens skala og eksekvering forbliver afgørende for investeringsperspektiver.
Fra Julius Bär:
China: Weaker growth highlights domestic strain
The rebound of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year proved short-lived. GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, the weakest pace since the pandemic. The domestic economy remained under pressure throughout the quarter. Consumption, investment, and activity in the property sector all struggled following the temporary improvement seen earlier in the year. Fiscal policy also provided less support, as government spending declined during the first two months of the quarter following the front-loading of support in Q1.
The external sector remained the main area of resilience. Export growth accelerated further in Q2, supported by strong demand for Chinese green technology and high-tech products, benefiting related high-value manufacturing industries. Output of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and industrial robots recorded particularly robust growth. However, these pockets of strength were insufficient to offset the broader weakness in domestic demand.
Overall, the latest economic data suggests that a sustained recovery of the domestic economy will be difficult to achieve without stronger policy support. We expect policymakers to accelerate the implementation of previously announced measures in the H2 to stabilise growth and prevent a further weakening in economic momentum. We therefore maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5%, placing growth at the lower end of the authorities’ official target range.
Despite softer domestic demand, China continues to expand its position in strategically important industries. The combination of technological capabilities, large-scale datasets, and growing research ecosystems is strengthening its role in next-generation sectors, particularly where artificial intelligence is reshaping innovation and productivity. One area where these advantages are becoming increasingly apparent is biopharma.
Genomics: AI in biopharma beyond discovery
The biopharmaceutical (biopharma) industry faces a growing productivity challenge as R&D spending rises while returns decline. AI offers a more targeted approach to drug discovery, improving target identification and molecule design. Its clearest benefits are emerging in early-stage discovery, where timelines are shortening and more candidates are advancing into clinical testing. The Capgemini Research Institute estimates that the share of AI-discovered targets in biopharma pipelines will increase from 12% in 2025 to 60% by 2035.
However, clinical success rates have shown limited improvement, highlighting biology as the industry’s primary constraint. As AI models become increasingly commoditised, proprietary data is becoming the key competitive advantage. Companies with access to large, integrated healthcare datasets are better positioned to develop superior models, generate deeper insights, and strengthen their positions across the pharmaceutical value chain.
China is emerging as a major force in AI-driven biopharma, supported by vast healthcare datasets, a growing clinical-trial footprint, and rapidly developing innovation ecosystems. Its advantages now extend beyond discovery into clinical validation, where scale can enhance pipeline performance and accelerate development. From an investment perspective, scale and execution remain critical. Large biopharma companies are best positioned to capture AI-driven value creation because they combine data access, clinical-development capabilities, regulatory expertise, and a global commercial infrastructure. These strengths enable them to translate scientific advances into commercial outcomes more effectively.
What does this mean for investors?
While China’s economy lost momentum in Q2, external demand remains resilient, but not strong enough to offset the drag from a constrained private domestic balance sheet. Targeted fiscal support is helping at the margin, but it is not yet enough to create a stronger domestic impulse. China remains investable, not because an economic recovery is imminent, but because policymakers have strong incentives to prevent further weakness in the equity market.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/Gd74F978QzKILjv7vzzyywaPUwTcmESuWQPXUKpuVd7gdzRQe4w5QcqNXJAhMUUhmw
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