Væksten i Kina falder ifølge de seneste prognoser til under 6 pct. efter tre årtier med højere vækst. Men vær ikke nervøs. Der bliver stadig fremgang i f.eks. forbruget
Uddrag fra Merrill Lynch:
When China’s economic engine slows, investors take notice. And China’s growth has slowed, triggering fears among investors that global growth will
disappoint in 2020.
2020 will be a watershed year for the Middle Kingdom: Real annual economic growth will
be sub-6% for the first time in three decades based on estimates from BofAML Global
Research. They expect U.S.-Sino trade uncertainty, weaker domestic demand and belated
policy measures to reduce growth to 5.6% in 2020, the softest reading since 1990
(3.9%).
That said, don’t sweat it. Do the math: 5.6% real growth on a $14 trillion base equates
to roughly $790 billion in incremental Chinese output in 2020, a figure larger than most
economies (Turkey, Poland and Saudi Arabia, among others). What’s more, the growth
mix is shifting away from exports and investment toward services and consumption.
Consumerism has been bolstered by rising per capita incomes (in excess of $10,000),
greater urbanization and 350 million millennials that are better educated and digitally
connected. The Chinese consumer accounts for only 40% of GDP, but that share is set to
rise over the next decade, keeping China’s growth story intact. Large-tech China remains
among the best investment plays for U.S. investors.
China’s economy has expanded by at least 6% per annum in real terms since 1990, a
run unparalleled in modern economic history. Economic output topped $13 trillion in
2018, a staggering increase from just $400 billion in 1990. Then, China’s economy was
smaller than Spain’s or Canada’s; today, only the U.S. economy is larger based on nominal
U.S. dollars, with total U.S. output of $20.6 trillion in 2018 versus $13.4 trillion in China.
Based on figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the mainland’s output will
exceed $14 trillion in 2019.
