Finans

Kommentator: Forventning om fred i Iran var løbet foran virkelighed: Nye USA-angreb

Uddrag fra FTs Authers:

Mission Still Unaccomplished

Iran is back in the news. Following Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US renounced the waivers that had allowed the country to start selling its oil once more, and then announced a fresh wave of military strikes.

Coming late in the East Coast afternoon, the news had a predictable effect on markets, pushing bond yields up. The 10-year Treasury gained 8.2 basis points to hit 4.55%, while crude had its greatest rise since June 1, with Brent gaining 3.01%. This punctured optimism that inflation had been licked — although it was surprising that there was such confidence in the first place. Brent prices for December delivery, and the average price paid by US consumers at the pump, had been declining but remained some 25% higher for the year:

That calm reflected a belief that flows would resume, and were based on confidence that the US would not escalate the war into a broader land conflict. That assumption looks well-founded, and makes it harder for the US to threaten retaliation against moves that close the Strait of Hormuz. As the Bloomberg News Trends count of stories on the terminal from all sources shows, mentions of the Strait had on Monday had dropped to their lowest since the war started:

This was premature. Tankers are indeed moving through the Strait, but Bloomberg’s count of crossings shows that traffic is still far below normal and had begun to dwindle again:

Market-based inflation forecasts had come down sharply; one-year swaps are now at 2.23%, compared to 2.5% on the eve of the war. But consumers feel differently. The New York Federal Reserve’s regular consumer survey shows they are braced for 3.67% inflation over the next year, the highest since 2023, and higher than at any point in the decade leading up to the pandemic:

Jean Ergas of Tigress Financial Partners suggested that the victory celebrations had always been premature. “Crude futures are falling because we are getting rid of one-off excess capacity. But not everyone wants to send their ships through Hormuz.”

He suggested that VAR (Value at Risk) metrics should be replaced by OAR (Oil at Risk), as tanker operators felt it necessary to cross the Strait in convoys and pay for the privilege. Meanwhile, Iran made a show of strength with the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which demonstrated the regime remained intact and unchanged.

Iran seems really keen to show the world that the US has lost. That more or less guarantees that volatility will continue, and markets will need to readjust.

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Gratis white papers:

Kommentator: Forventning om fred i Iran var løbet foran virkelighed: Nye USA-angreb

Morten W. Langer

Mission Still Unaccomplished

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

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Gratis white papers:

Kommentator: Forventning om fred i Iran var løbet foran virkelighed: Nye USA-angreb

Morten W. Langer

Mission Still Unaccomplished

Få dagens vigtigste økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Relaterede nyheder

Marine Le Pen kan stille op til præsidentvalget i 2027 – Fransk politik præget af usikkerhed

Købte gods som bevis på rigdom – Kendt milliardærs arvinger vil sælge skov til 200 millioner

Ex Saxo Bank-ejer har nu tre mia. kr. til investering i sine andre forretninger

Jobannoncer

Mere fra ØU Finans

Dybdegående og original journalistik siden 1994

OM ØU

Sektioner

KONTAKT

Log ind

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Analyser med aktiestrategi, enkeltaktier, consensus, crypto og råvarer

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Dybdegående og original
journalistik siden 1994