Analyse: Står Europa over for en alvorlig økonomisk krise?

Fra Natixis:

Could there be another crisis in the euro zone?

Many investors question whether the euro zone will be hit by another financial crisis, as in 2011-2012, given the appearance of a number of risks:

– Political (Portugal, Spain, Brexit);

– Geopolitical (tensions stemming from the refugee crisis);

– Banking (Italy, effects of bail-in);

– Economic (countries unable to re-establish their fiscal solvency, Greece);

– Financial, given the across-the-board repricing of risk.

But all this cannot trigger a serious crisis, given:

– Quantitative easing, and the ECB’s ability to step up this programme;

– The political determination to avoid a new crisis;

– The situation of surplus savings (external surplus), including in the peripheral countries;

– Growth, which now seems solid as opposed to many other countries;

– The solidity of banks, apart from some small Italian banks.