Analyse fra BNP Paribas:
Eurozone: Headline inflation to dip back into negative territory European national inflation data surprised to the downside on Tuesday, with both German and Spanish September HICP inflation coming in weaker than the market expected, mainly due to a sharper-than-forecast fall in energy-price inflation.
This underpins our view that eurozone inflation will have dipped into negative territory this month. The fall may be down to cheaper oil having a greater effect on energy prices than in the summer. If so, the other eurozone national prints are likely to show a similar dynamic. The risk to our below-consensus eurozone September HICP inflation forecast of −0.1% y/y (consensus 0.0%), therefore, lies to the downside, at −0.2% y/y.
Headline inflation should clamber back into positive territory by year end, thanks to strong energy-related base effects. What will be key for monetary policy, however, is the dynamic of underlying inflation. Past EUR weakness could still push up core goods prices near term, but the risks to services inflation remain to the downside.
A good deal of slack in the labour market, lower commodity prices (which reduce firms’ costs and should limit wage demands) and the recent strengthening of the EUR herald a renewed decline in core inflation, we believe. Together with a likely moderation of the leading activity indicators over the course of Q4, the case should build for further monetary policy easing down the line.
