Analyse fra BNP Paribas:
US: FOMC to lay the groundwork for hike later this year; data to remain supportive On Tuesday and Wednesday, the FOMC will gather in Washington to formally consider raising interest rates for the first time this cycle. We expect the key message from the June meeting to be that the FOMC is packed and ready, just waiting for the data to signal ‘lift-off’.
The Committee appears to have little appetite to signal that in the policy statement, which means that Chair Yellen is likely to use her June press conference to lay the groundwork for a September hike. Thus, in our view, the most significant piece of communication on Wednesday will be delivered at the press conference. The overall message is likely to be somewhat bearish for markets.
That being said, there is high potential for mixed signals, with the policy statement expected to be a bit more hawkish than the last one and the summary of economic projections and the ‘dot plot’ likely to send a dovish message. We continue to view September as the most likely single month for lift-off and for the pace of tightening after lift-off to be gradual.
