What is the shock that triggered weaker sentiment surveys regarding the outlook for the euro-zone economy? Author: Patrick Artus Since the beginning of 2016, there has been a weakening of business sentiment regarding the euro-zone economy, especially the outlook for production, but also, to a more limited extent, for employment and order books and household and corporate confidence.
We want to determine what triggered this weakening:
– A weakening of exports due to the deterioration in the global economy?
– The problems of oil-exporting countries and the oil sector?
– Special concern over China and its exchange rate policy?
– The resurgence of political risk, peripheral sovereign risk, in the euro zone?
– The downturn in financial markets? All these trends are simultaneous with the worsening sentiment surveys regarding the euro zone. It is hard to know whether the downturn in financial markets is a cause or a consequence of the weakening cyclical surveys
