Fra Fanthom
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its preliminary estimate of third quarter annual GDP growth on Monday. At 6.9% it expanded at a fractionally faster rate than analysts had anticipated, but it remains well above our own measure of China’s economic activity which points to growth closer to 3.0%.
As always, China’s GDP data were released well in advance of other national statistics agencies, and the numbers (which sit comfortably within the target range of “around 7.0%”) are rarely revised.
We are finding these official statistics increasingly difficult to square with the collapse in commodity prices on which China’s economy depends. China’s supposedly mild GDP growth deceleration is also at odds with the non-manufacturing PMI — as displayed in our chart.
We also find it curious that the relationship between China’s GDP deflator and its headline inflation rate has changed. With the deflator for the third quarter of this year dipping back into deflation, this could be related to the overstatement of China’s real GDP data.
