The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release. Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning’s Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.
