Læs hele analyse om de fem drivkræfter, som vil påvirke oliepriserne i 2015 her:
Low oil prices are likely to lead to upwardly revised economic growth forecasts, and in turn higher oil demand prospects. As such, the recent string of downward revisions to oil demand forecasts by the IEA is likely to be reversed (Chart 5). The difficulty in identifying when lies in the extent of the time lag before which lower oil prices spur higher economic growth and in turn how much that additional growth will stimulate oil demand. We assume a lag of two to three quarters and that a minimum amongst the advanced economies, the US will deliver more oil demand than expected. Equally, better economic performance in the US could only have positive spill-over effects through trade on key contributors to global oil demand such as China. Conversely, low oil prices present challenges for emerging market economies that are oil producers such as the Middle East and the FSU. These regions, along with China, have significantly contributed to global demand growth over the recent years. Alongside economic activity, storage demand is likely to emerge. The current contango invites cash and carry plays using floating storage, which back in 2009 helped the recovery in oil prices by removing surplus oil from the market. At the same time, with oil at bargain-bin prices, demand destined for the filling of strategic storage is likely to originate from countries such as China and India.
