Analyse fra BNP Paribas:
Total nonfarm payrolls disappointed in August but the miss was offset by upward revisions to hiring in the previous two months, a 0.2pp drop in the unemployment rate and better wage data. We don’t think the report will do enough to change many priors on the FOMC.
* The report was less positive than we expected, primarily due to the 60k in downward revisions to April and May, though labor market slack continues to diminish.
* The surprise to payrolls raises questions about where the jobs market is going, with manufacturing shedding 17k jobs in August, tying in with a weak PMI recently. Is the strong dollar and weak global growth taking an increasing toll on the traded goods sector? Given recent turbulence, will this build? All this adds up to a high probability that the Fed will not be “reasonable confident” in its inflation judgment. It wasn’t reasonably confident before and this payrolls print does not change that.
* 173,000 jobs were added in August, below our and consensus expectations (230k and 217k, respectively), with the unemployment rate falling 0.2pp to 5.1% and stronger earnings than predicted (0.3% m/m, 2.2% y/y).
* Hiring was stronger than expected in the government and education and health sectors, which added 33k and 62k jobs, respectively. The largest downside surprise, relative to our forecast, came in the manufacturing and mining sectors on the goods side and professional and retail on the services front. The diffusion index for manufacturing slipped well under the 50 neutral level, indicating more manufacturing sectors shedding jobs than adding.
* The household survey showed a 196,000 gain in employment in August with a 0.07% drop in the participation rate (now: 62.6%) and a small drop in the civilian labor force that moved the unemployment rate down 0.2pp to 5.1% (5.11% unrounded).
