I en omfattende analyse af udsigterne for forskellige aktivklasser skriver BNP Paribas:
Equities: Living dangerously
US economic outperformance and the resultant policy divergence and USD strength are important changes to the global investment environment. This is positive for US equities but negative for emerging market equities.
ECB QE should lead to a strong performance in European equities and normalisation of many of the distorted parameters in derivatives markets. Korea too may ease policy, leading us to be bullish cheap Korean equities.
The fundamentals of baseline volatility for US equities remain relatively benign but are increasing. In Europe they are moderate but in emerging markets the risks are high. The opposite is true of the potential for spike volatility in each region.
USD strength has significant implications for equities 2015 view:
European equities could outperform in the first half of the year but US equities will catch up later and on less volatility. We see the SX5E at 3,500 and the SPX at 2,250 by end 2015 (both up 8-9% from the current level, Table 1).
Japanese equities could suffer in the first half but will probably recover to 18,000 by the year end (up 4%).
Emerging market equity performance will be diverse again. We see the Kospi and HSCEI outperforming emerging markets in general (EEM) with the latter rising just 3% by the end of 2015.
