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It is easy to understand why long-term interest rates are so low in the euro zone (very low nominal growth, start of the ECB’s quantitative easing, forward guidance, etc.). But why are long-term interest rates so low in the United States? here is a sustainable growth recovery, nominal growth and nominal potential growth are between 3% and 4%, the Federal Reserve is going to start raising its key interest rates, and quantitative easing is over. Indeed, forecast inflation remains quite low, the Federal Reserve will be cautious (due to the “poor quality” of jobs, the stagnation of residential investment), and the US recovery and reindustrialisation are attracting investors and reducing the fiscal deficit. But dollar long-term interest rates nevertheless seem very low. We look at the equilibrium in the market for US Treasuries to try to better understand this situation. We see that the excess demand ex ante results from the fall in issuance and continued non-resident buying flows.
