Kommentar: Gad vide, om de græske politikere har opdaget, hvad den nye aftale indbærer, blandt andet at styringen af de græske banker overlades til EU og den europæiske centralbank.
Det er vidt erkendt, at de græske banker er dybt insolvente, blandt andet på grund af manglende nedskrivninger på dårlige lån.
Skal Danmark med i Bankunionen, så vi kan få lov til at betale oprydningen i de græske (og italienske, spanske og portugisiske) banker. Desværre forholder den regeringsrapport, som udkom i foråret med en klar anbefalinjg om a Danmark skal med i Bankunionen, sig ikke til dette spørgsmål. Der opstilles heller ikke risikoscenarier for, hvad der er mulige/ sandsynlige scenarier herfra.
Politisk bestillingsarbejde? sandsynligvis.-
Fra Reuters :
One of the preconditions imposed on Greece for a deal is that it signs into law European rules that would put euro zone authorities at the ECB and in Brussels, rather than Athens, in charge of identifying and closing or breaking up sick banks.
This in turn could lead to a shake-up of the sector that could see some banks close, with losses pushed onto bondholders and possibly even large depositors. In such circumstances, there would be little that Athens could do to prevent this.
One European official had told Reuters that the number of big banks in the country could be reduced from four – National Bank, Piraeus, Eurobank and Alpha – to as little as two.
Keep in mind the primary leverage the ECB had over the Greek government was the hint that if only Greece agrees to the terms, the European Central Bank just may be nice enough to ease ELA haircuts and eventually boost the ELA ceiling to allow the phasing out of capital controls and permit Greeks access to their savings.
This will not happen.
Unfortunatley, the moment the Greek government votes through the “deal” required by Summit document SN 4070/15, the Greek government will not only hand over sovereignty to €50 billion of Greece’s choicest assets to some escrowed fund controlled by Belgium and designed to liquidate Greek assets to repay the Troika, it will also give up all control of the nation’s €120 billion or so in leftover personal and corporate deposits, also known as unsecured liabilities.
And since the banks are undercapitalized by at least €25 billion, and realistically over €60 billion, if one takes into account NPLs which at 50% are a very optimistic estimate for a country in depression for 6 consecutive years, the first decision the ECB will do once it realizes the sorry state of financial affairs in Greece is to do precisely what the government could have done but did not have the guts when it still had control: overnight it will out about 50% of Greek depositors.
In other words, Greece is about to hand over the keys to the only thing that is forcing it to hand over the keys.
Unfortunately for Greece, there will be absolutely nothing its government can do to avoid this because on Wednesday, the Greek government will vote to hand over its sovereignty to Europe for, sadly, absolutely nothing in return.
Our only question, one we first asked in April, is whether as part of the deal, the 112.5 tons of official Greek gold will also be handed over to Frankfurt, Berlin or Brussels. Recall back in 2012:
Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal.
