Globalt KonjunkturBarometer: Økonomisk Ugebrevs konjunkturbarometer for den Globale Økonomi indikerer fortsat afmatning i to af de tre store regioner, hvor Europa skiller sig positivt ud, mens Kina fortsat er underdrejet og USA bremser stille og roligt op. Mest interessant er det med udviklingen hos vores største samhandelspartner, Tyskland, og her peger indikatorerne nu entydigt frem. Både de seneste PMI-data fra Markit og fra IFO er positive. IFO skriver: ”The index reached its highest level since July 2014. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater optimism about future business developments. The German economy continues to expand. In manufacturing the climate indicator rose once again. Manufacturers were more satisfied with their current business situation. They were also clearly more optimistic about future business developments. Production plans reached their highest level since May 2014.” Seneste data for industriproduktionen og for engrossalget i Tyskland har skuffet med tilbagefald, men disse data er også i højere grad historiske, mens indikatorerne er fremadrettede.
Den positive udvikling i Tyskland vil med stor sandsynlighed smitte positivt af på dansk erhvervsliv, hvilket også synes at blive bekræftet af de seneste omsætningstal for eksport fra dansk industri. Den positive udvikling i Europa på to-tre måneders sigt kan dog blive negativt påvirket af opbremsningen i USA’s økonomi. ISM-data fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer, især for fremstillingsindustri, nærmer sig en neutral situation. ISM for nye ordrer har allerede nået et punkt, hvor ordreindgangen er vigende: ”ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 51.8 percent in March, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point when compared to the February reading of 52.5 percent, indicating growth in new orders for the 28th consecutive month. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars),” skriver ISM. Der kom for marts stærke ISM-data for serviceindustrien, som dog kan blive påvirket negativt af en varig opbremsning i fremstillingsindustrien. En vis opbremsning i amerikansk erhvervsliv bekræftes også af de seneste data for OECD’s ledende indikator.
Kina synes aktuelt at være det svageste kort, hvor vækstopbremsningen er mere tydelig. Markit skriver: “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI signalled a slight deterioration in the health of China’s manufacturing sector in March. A renewed fall in total new business contributed to a weaker expansion of output, while companies continued to trim their workforce numbers. Meanwhile, manufacturing companies continued to benefit from falling input costs, stemming from the recent global oil price decline. However, relatively muted client demand has led firms to pass on savings in a bid to boost new work, and cut their selling prices at a similarly sharp rate.”
