Globalt KonjunkturBarometer: Den globale økonomi bevæger sig for tiden i en hårfin balancegang, hvorfra retningen er meget usikker. Overordnet er der den seneste måned sket flere skift – på den måde, at europæisk økonomi ser ud til at vinde styrke, mens USA’s økonomi ser ud til at tabe kraftig momentum. Billedet svarer ganske godt til den udvikling, som tegnes af Citigroup Economic Surprise index, hvor efterårets tendens er vendt lige på hovedet, altså så Europa går frem, mens USA går tilbage. Samlet set afspejles billedet også i Økonomisk Ugebrevs Konjunkturbarometer for den Globale Økonomi, hvor den samlede barometerstand er tæt på neutrale nul. Fremgangen i europæisk økonomi virker dog fortsat meget beskeden, fremgår det blandt andet af de nye Flash PMI data fra Markit fredag. Ifølge PMI-opgørelsen går Tysklands serviceindustri solidt frem, mens fremstillingsindustrien fortsat hænger i bremsen. Det tyder altså ikke på noget solidt opsving, men det antages dog at kunne få mere styrke af de lave oliepriser og den svage EUR over for USD.
Også det tyske IFO-indeks fra de tyske indkøbschefer indikerer fremgang i tysk erhvervsliv. IFO skriver: “In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. Assessments of the current business situation were better and manufacturers also expressed greater confidence in short-term business developments. Stronger impulses are expected from exports thanks to the falling euro exchange rate. In wholesaling the business climate continued to improve. This was largely due to far better assessments of the current business situation, while wholesalers expressed greater caution about their business outlook.”
De lavere oliepriser har positive makroøkonomiske effekter, men der også en bagside af medaljen, nemlig deflation: ”While the news on global economic activity has been varied of late – the data have generally been weaker than expected in China and Japan, mixed in the US and stronger in the eurozone – with a few exceptions, the disinflationary trend has remained well entrenched across the board. In China, both PPI and CPI inflation took a large step down in January, reflecting a combination of lower oil prices, over-capacity and anaemic domestic demand. CPI inflation fell to 0.8% y/y, its weakest reading since December 2009, and we expect it to dip close to 0% by mid-year. (…)The story is similar in Europe, where CPI inflation has fallen further into negative territory in the eurozone, Hungary and Poland. In most cases, recent developments are largely due to lower energy prices and can, therefore, be regarded as positive, as lower inflation boosts real disposable income and, consequently, consumption. In the words of Spanish Finance Minister Luis De Guindos, “deflation is like cholesterol, there are two kinds … the bad one and the good one”, and the recent bout looks to be of the latter type,” skriver finanshuset BNP Paribas i en analyse.
I USA er der tydelige tegn på en opbremsning i økonomien. Blandt andet seneste ISM-data viser et markant fald i delindikatoren for ordreindgang. Også det amerikanske ledende ECRI-indeks har vist den svageste udvikling i flere år for amerikansk økonomi.
