Økonomisk Ugebrevs KonjunkturBarometer for den Globale Økonomi har de seneste måneder vist en positiv tendens. Og i denne opdatering af barometeret fortsætter fremgangen, så den samlede score rykker frem til et plus. Der nu grund til optimisme, selvom der fortsat er store udfordringer i både USA, Europa og Kina.
Seneste indikatorer for både USA’s og europæisk økonomi viser fornyet fremgang. Især den amerikanske BNP vækst kan i det igangværende 2. kvartal måske nå i underkanten af tre procent efter nulvækst i 1. kvartal. Fremgangen bekræftes af en lang række indikatorer, blandt andet ISM, Conference Board og ECRI.
Mest interessante budskab er, at også europæisk økonomi igen begynder at røre lidt på sig efter en meget mat periode med ekstremt svag vækst. På overfalden ser det fortsat meget afdæmpet ud, og eksempelvis PMI fra Markit viste for hele Eurozonen i april den svageste score i 16 måneder. Markit skriver blandt andet, at det nok blive værre, før det bliver bedre med Eurozonens økonomi: “A disappointing flash eurozone PMI for May adds further to the suggestion that the robust pace of economic growth seen in the first quarter will prove temporary. The PMI is signalling lacklustre GDP growth of only 0.3% in the second quarter. “The forward-looking indicators also suggest that growth is more likely to weaken further than accelerate. Inflows of new work showed the smallest rise for nearly a year-and-a-half, while optimism about the business outlook in the service sector sank to its lowest since July 2015.”
Til gengæld er indikatorerne for Europas største og vigtigste økonomi, nemlig Tyskland, umiddelbart solide. PMI indikatoren viser første fremgang i 2016: ”May data signalled the first acceleration in German private sector activity growth in 2016 so far. This was highlighted by the Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index rising from April’s 53.6 to a five-month high of 54.7. Manufacturers and service providers both reported stronger growth which some survey respondents attributed to the processing of backlogs and increased new orders.” Men Markit er dog også lidt skeptisk: ”However, we should not be too complacent about these numbers and should instead view them with some caution. There was evidence that some companies raised activity levels in order to process backlogged work, rather than as a result of rising new business. Although new order intakes continued to increase, the rate of growth was the weakest in ten months.”
Også den vigtige tyske IFO indicator har indikeret en positive vending. Fra de tyske indkøbschefer i IFO hedder det, at ”in manufacturing the business climate has improved for the third consecutive time. The companies assessed their situation somewhat more favourably. Their expectations brightened noticeably, and production plans remain expansionary. A significant contribution to this improvement came from capital goods manufacturers.”
