De seneste data fra den historisk meget pålidelige ledende indikator fra OECD afspejler efter vores vurdering ganske godt, hvad der sker i den globale økonomi. OECD’s data indikerer, at Asien med Kina bremser op, og det samme gør USA, mens Europa holder stand, men også med mindre opbremsningstendenser. Risikoen er naturligvis, at opbremsningen i Kina og USA på sigt smitter af på europæisk økonomi, som også vil blive påvirket af en stigende euro/US dollar, højere oliepriser og stigende obligationsrenter.
For europæisk økonomi er det et klart bekymrende tegn, at forventningerne i den ledende tyske IFO-indikator nu er faldet tilbage to måneder i træk. Samme tidens bekræftes af de seneste data fra tyske ZEW og Markits PMI.
Meget afgørende bliver det for europæisk økonomi, hvad der sker i USA, og her er billedet meget blandet. De seneste ISM-data fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer viser fremgang i ordreindgangen, og kommentarerne fra virksomhederne lyder blandt andet sådan: ”Economy is showing signs of improvement.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products). Automotive is still strong. However, steel prices have dropped due to overcapacity and the strong US dollar.” (Fabricated Metal Products). Overall business is steady. Employment in this area is up, a good sign.” (Transportation Equipment). Strong spring demand in agriculture.” (Chemical Products). The exchange rate on the dollar is hurting our sales in Asia. The conversion rate is lowering our profit in Europe where we sell in Euros.” (Computer & Electronic Products).”
De tidligste indikatorer, blandt andet fra ECRI, indikerer, at USA’s økonomi efter én opbremsning i det tidlige forår gik svagt frem i april-maj, hvorefter det igen er begyndt at gå ned ad bakke. Seneste data fra PMI indikerer samme billede: ”May data indicated a further robust expansion of U.S. manufacturing output, but new business volumes increased at the slowest rate since the start of 2014. Softer growth of incoming new work partly reflected an overall decline in new export sales for the second month running. Nonetheless, payroll numbers rose at a solid pace, with the latest upturn in manufacturing employment the fastest for six months.”
Også data fra Conference Board peger i retning a en blød udvikling: ”Expectations, however, were relatively flat following a steep decline in April. While current conditions in the second quarter appear to be improving, consumers still remain cautious about the short-term outlook.”
Samtidig synes kinesisk økonomi fortsat er ligge underdrejet, viser seneste data fra PMI: “Although this was up slightly from 48.9 in April, the index remained below the crucial 50.0 neutral mark and signalled a third successive monthly deterioration in the health of China’s manufacturing sector. However, the rate of deterioration remained only slight. May data signalled a renewed fall in Chinese manufacturing output, after production volumes stagnated in April. Although the rate of decline was only marginal, it was the first time that output had contracted since last December. Anecdotal evidence suggested that a softening in market conditions had dampened client demand.”
