Gårsdagens PMI data for USA peger i retning af BNP vækst i Q3 på 2,5 % >
Manufacturing remained stuck in crawler gear in September, fighting an uphill battle against the stronger dollar, slumping demand in many export markets and reduced capital spending, especially by the energy sector. “The survey is indicating the weakest manufacturing growth for almost two years, meaning the sector will have acted as a drag on the economy in the third quarter.
“The disappointing performance of the goods producing sector has so far been offset by stronger expansion in the larger services sector, which means the economy looks to have grown at a reasonable 2.5% annualised pace in the third quarter, but there are question marks over whether this growth can be sustained as we move towards the end of the year. Inflows of work showed the smallest rise since the start of 2014, and job creation has also slowed. “The sluggish growth, weaker forward-looking indicators and downturn in price pressures all point to the Fed holding off with rate hikes until next year.
Analytikernes konsensus forventning ligger også på 2,5 % i 3. kvartal, jvf. Atlanta Fed, som den seneste måned har opjusteret sit BNP skøn for Q3 til 1,5 %
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 17, unchanged from the September 15 forecast. The real GDP growth forecast declined 0.1 percentage point to 1.4 percent after incorporating updated data on retail inventories released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday. It ticked back up to 1.5 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the Census Bureau.
