Heading into tonight’s datagasm from China, SHCOMP tumbled and Yuan was strengthening (while money-market rates were ticking higher). Then it began… Retail Sales BEAT(+10.5% vs. +10.4% exp), Industrial Production BEAT (+6.8% vs. +5.9% exp), Fixed Asset Investment BEAT (+10.7 vs. +10.4% exp) and last – but not least – GDP MEET(+6.7 vs. +6.7% exp) – though still the weakest since Q1 2009. The post-data reaction was initially opsitive but then faded fast as reality hit on the lack of stimulus coming.
*CHINA MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.8% ON YEAR; EST. 5.9%
*CHINA MARCH RETAIL SALES RISE 10.5% ON YEAR; EST. 10.4%
*CHINA JAN.-MARCH FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT RISES 10.7%; EST. 10.4%
And finally, a mere two weeks after quarter-end, China can calculate GDP confidently and with not a hint of manipulation… lowest since Q1 2009
Bear in mind that the 42 estimates of tonight’s ‘manufactured’ GDP data varied from +6.3% (Barclays) to +7.2% (HFE) – a cool $100bn between most bullish and most bearish.
The reaction all of this great news…not good…
Now The Fed has a problem – solid inflation, solid wages, solid jobs, and no global turmoil – we are going to need some turmoil soon or rates are going up.