Most analysts believe the main security problems on NATO’s eastern flank lie less in a direct Russian military threat to their territory than in permanent instability in the grey zone of former Soviet states between NATO and Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has intervened militarily in Georgia in 2008 and Ukrainethis year, and could activate so-called “frozen conflicts” in Moldova or between Armenia and Azerbaijan to prevent those states moving closer to the West.
Having ruled out military action, the West’s main levers to curb Kremlin support for pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine and elsewhere are economic sanctions and political ostracism.
Despite their dependence on Russian gas and the economic blowback on lucrative trade with Moscow, European Union nations are on the brink of adopting a fourth wave of sanctions.
The measures are taking a toll on the Russian economy but have not persuaded Putin to abandon his doctrine of “protecting” Russian speakers beyond Moscow’s borders, enunciated to justify the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko heard plenty of verbal support at the summit and was wise enough not to raise his goal of eventual NATO membership, a red line for Putin on which the alliance is deeply divided
