Ifo Business Climate Index Falls
The Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry fell to 107.4 points in June from 108.5 points last month. The indicator for the current business situation declined this month following three successive increases. Business expectations deteriorated for the third consecutive month and are now only slightly optimistic. The outlook for the German economy is overcast.
In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated clearly. After reaching the year’s highest level in May, assessments of the current business situation deteriorated somewhat, but nevertheless remained good. Business expectations for the months ahead clouded over. Manufacturers still plan to ramp up production, but to a lesser extent than previously.
In wholesaling the business climate indicator fell. This was due to a sharp decline in business expectations. By contrast, wholesalers assessed their current business situation more positively. In retailing the business climate indicator declined. Retailers were slightly less satisfied with both their current business situation and their business outlook.
The business climate in construction improved for the third month in succession. While assessments of the current business situation deteriorated slightly, expectations brightened markedly.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute
Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Time series
Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted) |
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| 06/14 | 07/14 | 08/14 | 09/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 | 01/15 | 02/15 | 03/15 | 04/15 | 05/15 | 06/15 | Climate | 109.3 | 108.0 | 106.5 | 105.5 | 103.6 | 104.8 | 105.6 | 106.7 | 106.8 | 107.9 | 108.6 | 108.5 | 107.4 | Situation | 114.4 | 113.3 | 111.0 | 110.8 | 108.2 | 109.4 | 109.9 | 111.7 | 111.4 | 112.1 | 114.1 | 114.3 | 113.1 | Expectations | 104.3 | 103.0 | 102.2 | 100.5 | 99.2 | 100.3 | 101.5 | 102.0 | 102.4 | 103.9 | 103.5 | 103.0 | 102.0 |
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Source: Ifo Business Survey |
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Ifo Business Climate Germany by Sector (Balances, seasonally adjusted) |
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| 06/14 | 07/14 | 08/14 | 09/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 | 01/15 | 02/15 | 03/15 | 04/15 | 05/15 | 06/15 | Trade and Industry | 11.5 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | <nbsp;><nbsp;>Manufacturing | 15.1 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 10.8 | <nbsp;><nbsp;>Construction | -4.4 | -4.9 | -3.6 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -5.1 | -5.6 | -5.7 | -7.7 | -5.1 | -4.8 | -3.8 | <nbsp;><nbsp;>Wholesaling | 11.7 | 9.3 | 1.6 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 7.4 | <nbsp;><nbsp;>Retailing | 9.0 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -5.3 | -2.2 | -4.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 5.6 |
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Source: Ifo Business Survey |
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