Federal reserve har i den årlige revision af de månedlige data for industriproduktion og kapacitetsudnyttelse nedvevideret tallene.
De svagere makroøkonomisk data for amerikansk økonomi trækker i retning af, at FED vil vente med den udmeldte renteforhøjelse. det har understøttet amerikanske aktier i eftermiddag, der er faldet langt mindre end europæiske aktier.
Europæiske aktier er sat betydeligt ned på grund af en styrket Euro, og en forstærket forventning om, at Euro’en nu står overfor en periode med en styrkelse overfor USD. detr vil alt andet lige svække europæiske virksomheders konkurrenmceevne.
The Fed unveiled its revisions for industrial production and capacity utlization.
Already at weak levels, both were revised notably lower, slowing the market’s rate-hike expectations and stalling any hope that the recovery is gathering pace.
Judging by the chart below, the June payrolls report was right: snowfall in the summer was indeed much worse than most remember.
Fra Federal Reserve – læs hele meddelelsen her
RESULTS OF THE REVISION
The tables show the summary statistics for the annual revision. Tables 1A and 1B present the monthly, quarterly, and annual average index levels for total IP and for total capacity and capacity utilization for January 1985 through June 2015, along with the percent changes in total IP. Tables 2 and 3 show the revised rates of change in IP from 2011 through the first half of 2015 for market groups, industry groups, special aggregates, and selected detail.
Table 4 shows the annual rates of change for total IP and for major market and industry groups for 2010 through 2014. Table 5 presents the revised rates of change in capacity by industry groups for 2011 through the first half of 2015. Tables 2 through 5 also show the differences between the revised and previous estimates of the rates of change. Table 6 contains the revised capacity utilization rates for the fourth quarters of 2011 through 2014; it also shows the differences between the revised and previous estimates.
Table 7 reports revised semiannual rates of change for IP for the second half of 2010 through the first half of 2015. Table 8 contains revised capacity utilization rates for the second and fourth quarters from the fourth quarter of 2012 through the second quarter of 2015. Tables 9A, 9B, 10A, 10B, 11A, and 11B report the revised production, capacity, and utilization measures for manufacturing, total industry excluding selected high-technology industries, and manufacturing excluding selected high-technology industries.Table 12 displays the annual proportions in IP by market and industry groups for 2007 through 2014. Table 13 reports revised IP indexes for the major market and industry groups for the previous six months; and it also reports revised capacity utilization rates for the same period. Table 14 shows price indexes for data networking equipment for 2001 through 2013.
Industrial Production
Revisions to the changes in total IP show lower rates of change in recent years than were previously estimated (figure 1 and tables 2 and 7).[3] After having declined sharply during the recession, total IP is still reported to have rebounded strongly in 2010 and then to have increased moderately in each year from 2011 to 2013; industrial production advanced solidly in 2014 and fell back somewhat in the first half of 2015. However, the gains in 2012 and 2013 are each 1 percentage point weaker than previously stated, putting the trajectory of the recovery on a lower path. As currently reported, total IP did not return to its pre-recession peak until May 2014; previously, it was estimated to have reached that level in October 2013.
On net, the revision resulted in lower estimates for manufacturing IP and higher estimates for mining IP than previously reported; the estimates for utilities are little revised. In particular, manufacturing output is currently reported to have increased only about 1 1/2 percent, on average, in 2012 and 2013, whereas it was previously stated to have averaged gains of more than 3 percent over those two years.[4] As currently reported, manufacturing IP had not yet recovered to its pre-recession peak by June 2015; indeed, it was more than 4 percent below that level. Prior to the revision, manufacturing IP was reported to have returned to its pre-recession level by November 2014. In contrast, increases in the extraction of crude oil and natural gas have boosted the index for mining in recent years, and the revised estimates show even stronger rates of change for 2012 through 2014 than reported earlier.
