Morgan Stanley skriver i sin serie om 7 ideer, der kan skabe vindere i 2021, at de amerikanske banker kan komme igen i 2021 og især i 2022, når vaccinerne er blevet udbredt. Banken venter en større indtjening, end de fleste gør.
3. Should Investors Be Bullish on Banks?
The market view on U.S. banks is that investors “need to see it to believe it,” as investors are unsure about how smoothly the economy will handle the reduction in stimulus as the vaccine is fully distributed.
“The market is missing that the pace of vaccine distribution essentially acts like a crystal ball in terms of when we return to normal.,” says Betsy Graseck, Global Head of Banks and Diversified Financial Research. Graseck and her team believe that vaccine distribution will help normalize the U.S. economy by the end of 2021, which should drive down unemployment and loan losses and drive up loan growth and long-end interest rates.
Together, this should increase earnings and stock buybacks, accelerating EPS growth. “Our 2022 earnings estimates land at about 8% above consensus, with a median 18% upside in our base case,” says Graseck, whose colleagues covering banks across the globe also have constructive views.
Banks could return a median of 14% of market cap over the next two years (2021-2022 capital return as a % of market cap)
