“In October 2023, we published a study on the transformation of the international trade. This time, we present stylized facts confirming the evolution of global trade relations, particularly the fragmentation of tradeflows influenced by increasing geopolitical tensions and industrial policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of supply chains. The latest observations and projections corroborate there lative weakening of international trade, a phenomenon that has been underway since the early 2000s. However, the data do not indicate a significant break in the relationship between trade and GDP growth, even in a context marked by the proliferation of measures unfavorable to the former. Nonetheless, the year 2024 confirmed the trends initiated over the previous two years, with a greater concentration of trade among institutional groups with common economic and political interests. There orientation of trade for the United States and the EU reveals remarkable dynamics, characterized by a heterogeneous decoupling, particularly from China. Despite a decrease in trade with China, the U.S. dependency ratio on this country remains significantly higher than that of Europe.”
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Morten W. Langer
