Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Nordea: Slut med lavere ECB-renter

Hugo Gaarden

fredag 17. januar 2020 kl. 9:30

Nordea venter, at ECB vil fastholde det nuværende renteniveau. Der er ikke udsigt til en lempelse, fordi euro-zonen snarere er på vej opad end ind i en recession.

Uddrag fra Nordea:

ECB will leave rates unchanged at Lagarde’s second policy meeting. Focus will be on the strategic review. Risks are tilted towards slightly higher rates as an immediate market response. We change our forecast and no longer expect further easing!

We expect the key ECB interest rates to be kept unchanged at next week’s meeting at -50bp and 0bp for the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate, respectively, which is in line with consensus and market pricing.

Will Lagarde’s ECB be less dovish than Draghi’s ECB? A month ago, we would probably have said “no”. Now, it’s a soft “yes, probably”. Consequently, we change our forecast and no longer expect additional policy easing!

From a strategic point of view, we still see risks skewed to the dovish side. Markets have largely given up pricing further easing over the coming year, and currently price in a clear risk of a rate hike next year, which seems premature.

Lagarde’s ECB

Neither Ms Lagarde nor any of her colleagues have given any clear signals of additional easing ahead despite continued weak growth momentum and too low inflation.

Instead, most policy-related communication from Governing Council members has been centered on the potential negative side effects of negative interest rates as well as the need to make a comprehensive strategic review during 2020.

Recovery

One reason why Governing Council members are not talking about policy easing could be that the numbers have turned slightly better, albeit still at weak levels, and downside risks have declined thanks to the US-China phase one deal and at least a slightly clearer Brexit path.

The Euro-area composite PMI stabilised at the last quarter of 2019 after having fallen considerably since the beginning of 2018. Moreover, the OECD’s leading indicator for the Euro area increased for the first time in two years in December, marking the start of a recovery from a weak starting point, if sustained over the coming months.

ECB staff projections with quarterly growth rates at 0.2% q/q in 2019Q4 and 0.3% q/q in Q1 2020 still look too optimistic but less so than a month ago as uncertainty has declined.

Core inflation also looks less bad after rising to 1.3% y/y in the last two readings, which is not only at par with the highest readings during the past four years but also close to the 1.5% y/y that was the average core inflation rate back in the days when the ECB was still meeting its inflation target on average. Also market-implied inflation expectations have posted a small rebound in line with the recently somewhat more optimistic market tone.

Chart 1: Looking more like a recovery and less like a recession
Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Forretningsudvikler til Pension og Formue
Pension, Formue
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Midt- og Nordjylland
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Afdelingsdirektør for forretningsudvikling Private Banking
Private Banking
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Region hovedstaden og Sjælland
Generalsekretær i Folkekirkens Nødhjælp
Region Hovedstaden
ØKONOMIMEDARBEJDER – Carlsbergfondet
Region Hovedstaden
Regnskabsassistent til Pharma Nord
Region Syddanmark
Kontorchef for økonomi, analyse og kunder i Færdselsstyrelsen
Region H
DIGITALISERINGSCHEF – Muskelsvindfonden
Region H
Direktionskonsulent med flair for økonomi og udviklingsprojekter
Region Sjælland

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank