Pimco vurderer investeringsmulighederne under opsvinget fra coronakrisen og hæfter sig ved, at aktiemarkederne giver det største afkast i begyndelsen af en ny cyklisk udvikling, dvs. i 2021 og måske snarere i begyndelsen af 2021. Derfor overvægter Pimco aktierne i den kommende tid, men gør også opmærksomhed på, at den generelle økonomiske genopretning kan vare to år. Derfor kan der komme mange bump på vejen i år og næste år. Pimco har lavet en liste over de sektorer verden over, der ventes at klare sig bedst.
Uddrag fra Pimco:
Asset Allocation Views: Early Cycle Investing
In this abridged version of our latest Asset Allocation Outlook, we discuss the opportunities and risks of investing in an early cycle recovery.
Yet, if the market meltdown was unprecedented, so was the recovery that followed. We believe the global economic recovery is poised to continue in 2021 and will gain strength once vaccines are broadly deployed and the world starts to return to normal social distancing.
As our latest Asset Allocation Outlook discusses in detail, we expect profit growth will accelerate, and the improvement in fundamentals should bode well for risk markets and cyclical assets in particular. We remain overweight equities in our multi-asset portfolios and select areas of the credit markets and have added exposure to more cyclically oriented sectors and regions.
To be sure, PIMCO expects the economic recovery will be a “long climb” with hiccups along the way (as we discussed in a June 2020 blog post), and it could take up to two years to reach pre-COVID-19 levels of global output. The two key swing factors – virus containment and fiscal policy support – will greatly influence the recovery process.
As a result, we continue to focus on portfolio diversification and resiliency.
Equity versus credit
Increased earnings growth is positive for both equities and credit, but it provides a more significant tailwind for equity markets. This is why, historically, equity markets have generated higher risk-adjusted returns during the early stages of a business cycle.
The Fed’s commitment to overshoot its inflation target is also supportive for equities, which look attractive given what is likely to be an extended period of negative or low real yields.
In addition, with monetary policy constrained by near-zero interest rates in most of the developed world, fiscal policy will need to do the heavy lifting. The size and the scope of fiscal response is bound to have critical implications for both the economic recovery and asset prices.
Equity themes
The recovery in activity and improvement in corporate profits should support cyclically sensitive assets, which have meaningfully lagged market leaders like big tech since the market bottom in March.
The global manufacturing recovery should bolster sectors such as industrials, materials, and semiconductors. Focused fiscal stimulus and healing in the labor market should aid personal savings and consumption, benefiting the housing and consumer durables sectors.
However, we remain cautious on transportation and hospitality, which could face earnings challenges for several years. From a regional perspective, we expect cyclically oriented equities – such as in Japan and select emerging markets – to benefit from the recovery.
We also continue to seek opportunities in sectors that may benefit from longer-term disruption. These include technology companies, which are supported by strong fundamentals and stand to benefit further from secular trends accelerated by COVID. The U.S. and China remain dominant players in the global technology sector, but we are also looking to take advantage of themes playing out in other regions, such as green energy in Europe and automation in Japan.
