Pimco vurderer, at den amerikanske hjælpepakke på 1900 milliarder dollar vil føre til en vækst på 7 pct. i år. Kun tre gange siden 1950 har USA haft så høje vækstrater. Det vil føre til en inflation på over 2 pct., men der er ikke en stor risiko for, at det vil føre til en større og mere vedvarende inflation som i 70’erne, mener Pimco.
Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation
A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
The additional COVID-19 relief, on top of the $900 billion package from late last year, could boost the 2021 federal government deficit to over $3.5 trillion – an unprecedented level – and contribute to 2021 real GDP growth of over 7%.
For context, reported fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter real GDP growth has only been above 7% three times since 1950, and each of those instances occurred either before or during the great inflationary episode of the 1970s–1980s. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is likely to be more accommodative of the additional spending and has committed to allowing inflation to run above its long-term 2% target.
In this context, it’s not surprising that more investors are worried about another inflationary accident. While a period of above-target inflation has become more likely, in our view, the likelihood of a self-reinforcing inflationary process similar to what happened in the 1970s is still relatively low.
If monetary and fiscal policies remain expansionary for several years after economies return to full employment, then inflation could exceed central banks’ targets eventually. But as noted in PIMCO’s most recent Secular Outlook, we are monitoring risks for both longer-term inflation and deflation.
