Markederne træder vande i disse dage, fremgår det af Saxo Banks analyse. Markederne er fanget af stærke økonomiske data, der gør de offentlige stimuli mindre påkrævet, og af modsatrettede data, nemlig udbredelsen af Delta. Dollaren er på et fem års højt niveau. I dag kommer der data fra USA om inflationen.
Summary: Asian as well as US stocks drifted lower overnight while key commodities found a bid following Monday’s selloff. The market remains torn between strong economic data calling for an earlier than expected stimulus withdrawal and whether a resurgence in the delta variant may pause the recovery. The dollar trades near a five-month high while Treasury yields are softer following a four-day sprint higher. US inflation data – the other part of the Fed’s mandate – due Wednesday will be watched closely following last week’s strong job report.
What is our trading focus?
Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) – the US 10-year yield is holding the 1.30% level with the technology index Nasdaq 100 range trading as higher rates mean higher discount rate for the long-term expected growth discounted in US technology stocks. The 15,090 level in Nasdaq 100 is a key support level for Nasdaq 100 in today’s trading. S&P 500 futures are also retreating in early European trading but could get a boost later in the session if the US infrastructure bill is passed in the Senate.
EURUSD – trades near a four-month low with the March 31 low at €1.17 the final level standing in the way for a move to €1.16, the double bottom from Q4-20. Driven by a divergence in the timing of tapering between the Fed and the ECB with the latter still expected to be on hold until 2023 while the Fed could signal a change at the Jackson Hole symposium. Speculators in futures cut their long euro position to a 17-month low in the week to August 3, down to €4.7 billion from a peak a year ago at €26.5 billion.
Gold (XAUUSD) trades near a four-month low following Monday’s flash crash while silver (XAGUSD) trading near its cheapest to gold since January. Both metals have for now got their work cut out to attract renewed interest from traders with the call from Fed officials to start the tapering process growing louder. Late-August brings the annual symposium at Jackson Hole, a forum often used to announce pivotal changes. Next up, however, we have US inflation data – the other part of the Fed’s mandate – due Wednesday, and it will be watched closely following last week’s strong job report. Gold trades below relative safety at $1750-60, a key area of support-turned-resistance with a close above the first signal that another major low has been established.
Crude oil (OILUKOCT21 & OILUSSEP21) has stabilized following a 10% correction driven by demand worries amid another surge in delta virus cases around the world. However, supporting the market is the belief demand will continue to accelerate and tighten into yearend and 2022, and OPEC+ if needed will step in and support prices. The market will be watching closely the monthly oil market reports from EIA today followed by the IEA and OPEC on Thursday for any signs of changes in their demand outlook. Having found support ahead of the July low at $67.44, Brent crude may find resistance at $70.85 followed by $71.85.
Bitcoin (BITCOIN_XBTE:xome) and Ethereum (ETHEREUM_XBTE:xome) – Yesterday the Senate agreed on a bipartisan compromise to the US infrastructure bill which would limit the original proposal for increasing federal regulation of cryptocurrencies, and this boosted the sentiment in the crypto space, especially for crypto miners. The amendment was however rejected in a last-minute vote, as a lone senator voted against the amendment which needed unanimous consent to pass.
