Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreas inflation er stigende, hvilket får Bank of Korea til at forberede en stramningscyklus med forventet renteforhøjelse på 25 basispoint. Indiens forbrugerprisindeks forventes at stige til 4,2% årligt i juni, mens engrosprisindekset forventes at falde til 9%, på grund af lavere Brent-råoliepriser. Dog forbliver inflationen under pres fra vedholdende høje brændstofomkostninger og stigende fødevarepriser som følge af El Niño. Kinas makroaktivitetsindikatorer offentliggøres tirsdag og onsdag med forventninger om fortsat økonomisk splittelse. Eksporten forventes at stige med 17,5% årligt, importen med 24,0%, og et handelsoverskud på 120,1 mia. USD. Indenlandsk aktivitet forbliver dog sløv med fald i detailsalg og industriproduktion.
Fra ING:
3 key questions for China’s second half of 2026 Oil prices still offer relief for Asia, but no policy pivot Taiwan’s trade surplus falls short of lofty expectations in June CNY at a glance: tightening our forecast band for rest of 2026 Moderate Chinese inflation won’t stand in the way of a rate cut Taiwan’s CPI upside surprise shines spotlight on potential September rate hike Philippine inflation eases, but rate hikes still likely
South Korea’s inflation pressures have broadened and firmed. With growth holding up and inflation on a higher trajectory, the Bank of Korea is poised to begin a new tightening cycle on Thursday. We expect the BoK to raise rates by 25bp.
We expect India’s consumer price inflation to edge slightly higher to 4.2% year-on-year in June, while wholesale price inflation is likely to moderate to 9%. Softer Brent crude prices should pull wholesale prices lower, but persistent retail fuel costs, gradually firming food inflation and sticky core pressures point to a mild uptick in consumer inflation. Overall, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, as El Niño-related weather disruptions threaten food costs. The gradual pass-through of wholesale prices to retail prices, meanwhile, is expected to support underlying inflation pressures.
China’s key macro activity indicators are all set for release next Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect the divergence in China’s increasingly K-shaped economy to continue in June. We look for trade data, out on Tuesday, to show solid export growth of around 17.5% YoY with import growth of 24.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of $120.1bn. On Wednesday, domestic activity data is likely to remain sluggish, with retail sales falling -0.2% YoY, fixed-asset investment down -5.2% YoY ytd, and industrial production dropping 4.7% YoY. We expect this to translate into second-quarter GDP growth of roughly 4.6% YoY.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/articles/asia-week-ahead-100726/
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