Resume af teksten:
S&P 500 steg næsten 1 pct. fredag og ligger over 10 pct. højere end før Iran-krigen.
Aktiefutures peger lavere mandag efter stigende oliepriser og Saudi-Arabiens lukning af en olierørledning efter angreb.
Forhandlinger om åbning af Hormuzstrædet sluttede uden resultat på grund af uenighed.
Brent-olie stiger omkring 3 dollar til 108 dollar pr. tønde.
Kerneinflationen i USA var 0,3 pct. månedligt og 2,4 pct. årligt, og markedet priser omkring 85 pct. sandsynlighed for en Fed-renteforhøjelse onsdag.
ECB hævede renten, og markedet priser 76 pct. sandsynlighed for endnu en forhøjelse i oktober.
BRICS-topmødet i New Delhi vedtog et dokument med kritik af krigen i Mellemøsten samt sanktioner og toldsatser.
Den svenske opposition fører foreløbigt i mandaterne, mens de endelige valgresultater ventes onsdag.
En højere ECB-rente og en svagere svensk krone øger presset på Riksbanken forud for næste rentemøde.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Despite higher interest rates, the S&P 500 rose by nearly one percent on Friday and is more than 10 percent higher than before the Iran war, although the index has fallen slightly from its mid-August highs. Stock market futures, on the other hand, are pointing lower this morning, driven by higher oil prices after Saudi Arabia shut down an oil pipeline as a result of attacks. A meeting between Iran and other Gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz ended without results due to disagreement. Brent crude rises by about three dollars to 108 USD/barrel. Asian stock markets are a bit mixed with lower prices in Japan but small gains in China.
China, Russia and Iran participated in a summit of BRICS countries and other developing countries organized by Modi in New Delhi. The meeting agreed on a document that criticized the war in the Middle East and the use of sanctions and tariffs.
Following the US inflation data, we are changing our forecast and now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Core inflation was 0.3 per cent m/m and 2.4 per cent y/y, compared with consensus of 0.2 and 2.4 per cent, respectively. Although the deviation is small, our and the market’s interpretation is that a majority of the Fed believes that the decline in inflation is going too slowly. The market is pricing in about an 85% probability of a hike on Wednesday, another hike later this year and another in 2027. Analysts in Bloomberg’s consensus are slightly more divided, but nearly 50 percent expect a hike on Wednesday. However, a relatively large portion of the responses in the survey were provided before the August CPI. U.S. long-term interest rates fell back slightly initially but then rose and closed at the highest level since 2006. What the high long-term interest rates mean for the degree of monetary policy tightening is unclear, but neither the Fed nor the ECB seem to be paying much attention to this at present. More about the CPI and the Fed here.
The ECB raised interest rates and reiterated that inflation risks are mainly on the upside. Expectations of further interest rate hikes rose and the market is now pricing in a 76 percent probability of a hike in October and a significant probability of another hike in December. Incoming data will guide policy going forward, but the question is what it means when the ECB raises interest rates even though there are still no clear signs of either indirect inflationary effects or second-round effects via wages. At the same time, growth risks are on the downside, and it is not difficult to imagine how French voters might react to higher energy prices and interest rates ahead of the presidential election in April next year. Since the beginning of July, the yield on the ten-year French government bond has risen by almost 90 basis points, while the interest rate differential with Germany has gradually widened. The French ten-year yield is now higher than the corresponding rate in both Greece and Italy. To contribute to pushing up already high interest rates in this situation seems to me to be less balanced.
Nordic key stories
Election night’s preliminary distribution of seats, 175-174 in favor of the opposition, still stands, although the final election results will not be available until Wednesday. The opposition currently leads by 176-173, but the foreign votes are expected to shift the result slightly in favor of the government side. The assessment is that this will not be enough to change the the result to a government win. After that, complicated government negotiations with uncertain outcomes are likely to await. Magdalena Andersson has been pointed out as a possible candidate for prime minister, while Ulf Kristersson has opened the door to trying to remain as prime minister in another coalition. The Center Party opposes a government with the Left Party and at the same time needs to get both the Christian Democrats and the Liberals on board for the centrist solution the party advocates to be possible. So far, the market seems to be taking the election results in stride, even though the krona has weakened by barely one Öre against the euro.
The Riksbank’s business survey on Wednesday will be an important piece of the puzzle ahead of next week’s interest rate announcement, where companies’ price plans are in focus. The low inflation in August supported our forecast that the Riksbank will wait until spring to raise interest rates, but the ECB’s hawkish interest rate hike has changed the conditions. The market is now pricing in around one and a half hikes before the end of the year, and the question is to what extent the Riksbank can stick to the message from August that the Executive Board has time to wait before the interest rate needs to be raised.
After the rise in recent days, energy prices are higher than indicated by the futures market in June. However, the futures curves are still clearly pointing downwards, and market expectations for prices in twelve months’ time have changed relatively little. The same applies to electricity prices. Growth is increasing, but as long as the weakness in the labour market does not reverse, the recovery is fragile, and a prolonged period of high energy prices increases the risk of a downturn in consumption in the autumn.
The combination of a hawkish ECB and signs of a weaker krona is putting pressure on the Riksbank. Nevertheless, our assessment is that the Executive Board is largely sticking to the strategy communicated in June and August. However, the ECB’s hawkish announcement has increased uncertainty compared with our analysis ahead of the interest rate announcement published last week (read more here ).
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80677
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