Resume af teksten:
Det har været en relativt stille weekend i verdenspolitik. Der er stigende skibstrafik gennem Hormuzstrædet på trods af usikkerheder og stigende fragtrater. I Asien er de fleste store aktieindeks faldet, mens futures indikerer en svagt negativ åbning i Europa men stigninger i USA. FOMC-protokollerne og IMF’s opdaterede prognoser ventes i denne uge.
I Norden er Norges inflationsresultater i fokus. Kerneinflationen er stadig høj, og et resultat kan påvirke Norges Banks pengepolitik og muligvis føre til en renteforhøjelse i august. SEB’s boligprisindikator steg igen i juli. I Sverige viser nylige indikatordata en lettere optimistisk økonomi med bedre tendenser, især i fremstillingen, men ingen klar forbedring på arbejdsmarkedet endnu. Produktionsdata og BNP-indikator for maj offentliggøres onsdag.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
With Donald Trump distracted by Independence day celebrations and football politics, it has been a relatively quiet weekend in world politics. An increasing number of ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite continued high uncertainty, while rising freight prices can be noted. Credibility and stability will be key factors for a normalisation in the future. In Asia, most major stock indices have fallen this morning, while futures pricing indicates a slightly negative opening in Europe but gains in the US – in which markets were closed on Friday, when many other stock markets rose.
On the international agenda, the FOMC minutes are in focus this week. We’re watching for discussions on the economic outlook in light of the U.S.-Iran peace talks, as well as clues about how the Committee views newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reform plans. Also of interest are the IMF’s updated forecasts in the World Economic Outlook, which will be published on Wednesday. For Sweden, a busy week awaits, with the flash estimate for June inflation on Wednesday as the main highlight. We expect both core and headline inflation to slow down after the surprisingly high outcome in May. Read more here .
Today, however, we mainly await German factory orders and US services ISM. Several central bank speeches will also be held during the day, including by the Riksbank’s Seim (this afternoon).
Nordic key stories
In Norway, this week’s inflation outcome is of even greater importance, at least when it comes to monetary policy in the near term. Core inflation is still too high, clearly above target and far higher than Swedish inflation. We believe that core inflation edged lower in June, to 3.2% year-on-year, a tenth below Norges Bank’s forecast (read more here ) . Inflation has generally been slightly higher than expected in the spring and core inflation has risen gradually. The outcome will be an important indicator of whether Norges Bank chooses to raise the policy rate again as early as the August meeting, or rather wait until later in the autumn. We believe that an outcome roughly in line with Norges Bank’s – and our – expectations during the summer may be sufficient for an August hike.
Also, congratulations to Norway, who are rowing on to a quarter-final in the World Cup!
SEB’s Housing Price Indicator rose for the third month in a row and reached 47 in July. Households expect a slightly lower policy rate than before and are more optimistic about house price developments going forward, despite low consumer confidence. Read more here .
Better signs from the Swedish economy. Recent confidence indicators have pointed to better tendencies in the Swedish economy, especially in manufacturing. Both the NIER’s survey indicator and last week’s PMI’s indicate above-normal business confidence. Several aspects are pointing to a relatively broad-based optimism, and even households have increased their consumption over the past year despite low consumer confidence. So far, this has not led to any clear improvement in the labour market; potentially an expression of the fact that companies, facing high commodity and energy prices and high uncertainty, are cautious to hire in order to keep costs down. With sharply lower international commodity prices, the outlook may possibly become clearer. We believe that GDP growth will pick up this year, but it will probably take a little longer for this to translate into a labour market improvement. Producation data and the GDP indicator for May are published on Wednesday.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78033
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