Tyrkiet er med fuld kraft på vej ud af recessionen på grund af en stimulerende pengepolitik. Udsigt til fortsat vækst i fjerde kvartal.
Uddrag fra ING:
Turkey’s economy is rebounding strongly from recession thanks to supportive policies and a weak base from last year. Recent high frequency indicators suggest further momentum in the last quarter of 2019
In seasonal and calendar adjusted terms (SA), economic activity continued its recovery, albeit at a relatively slower pace, recording 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in the last quarter, after rising by 1.7% QoQ and 1.0% QoQ in 1Q and 2Q, respectively. TurkStat made some minor revisions to the headline GDP data in the first quarter (from -2.4% YoY to -2.3% YoY) and the second quarter (from -1.5% YoY to -1.6% YoY).
Private consumption, which has the highest share in GDP, turned positive in 3Q at 1.5% YoY amid continuous improvement in the first half.
The central bank is seeking to support activity through faster lending, reducing yields and making it more affordable to borrow. The end of the election cycle and resultant fall in political uncertainty as well as an improvement in US-Turkey relations have also helped to boost sentiment and hence private consumption.