Den globale økonomi fortsætter med at skride

For den toneangivende amerikanske økonomi viser kortsigtede hard data fortsat styrketegn, mens de ledende indikatorer nu viser store svaghedstegn.

Nedturen i den globale økonomi synes nu at accelerere. Mens europæisk økonomi i mange måneder har været ude på en glidebane på vej mod en recession, er det først for nylig, at de ledende indikatorer for USA’s økonomi har vist svaghedstegn. Det har ændret hele billedet, da USA’s nogenlunde stabile økonomi har været med til at holde europæisk økonomi oven vande. Men det ligner mere og mere en næsten synkron nedtur.

Eksempelvis var den ledende indikator fra Conference Board flad i august, og de amerikanske indkøbschefer i ISM ser nu klar nedgang i ordreindgangen. ISM skriver blandt andet, at ”The PMI® contracted for the first time since August 2016 (when it registered 49.6 percent) and ended a 35-month expansion period in which the composite index averaged 56.5 percent. The August contraction ended four straight months of expansion softening.”

Dette billede understøttes også af den seneste flash PMI-indikator for USA fra Markit, hvori det oplyses, at ”The survey indicates that businesses continue to struggle against the headwinds of trade worries and elevated uncertainty about the outlook. Although picking up slightly, the overall rate of growth in September remained among the weakest since 2016, commensurate with GDP rising in the third quarter at a subdued annualized rate of approximately 1.5%. Prospects also look gloomy, with inflows of new business down to the lowest since 2009 and firms’ expectations of growth over the coming year stuck at one of the most subdued levels since 2012.”

Også OECD’s meget pålidelige ledende indikator viser fortsatte svaghedstegn. Den store tyske økonomi er måske allerede i recession, og den fortsatte nedtur er senest bekræftet af både nye data fra Markit og fra IFO.

Markit skriver i den seneste flash PMI for Eurozonen , at Europa balancerer på nulvækst: ”The eurozone economy is close to stalling as a deepening manufacturing downturn shows further signs of spreading to the services sector. “The survey data indicate that GDP looks set to rise by just 0.1% in the third quarter, with momentum weakening as the quarter closed. “The goods-producing sector is going from bad to worse, suffering its steepest downturn since 2012, but a further worrying trend is the broadening-out of the malaise to the service sector, where the rate of growth has now slowed to one of the weakest since 2014.”