Sell Side analytikere ved at opgive positivt 2016

Ved indgangen til 2016 var de danske og internationale banker altovervejende positive omkring aktiemarkederne og den makroøkonomisk udvikling i 2016, og Sell Side analytikere, altså dem, der sælger investeringsprodukter til almindelige privatinvestorer, har mange gode grunde til at udmelde positive udsigter i deres ”markedsføring”.

Økonomisk Ugebrev har gennemgået en stribe analyser fra Sell Side analytikere, især udenlandske finanshuse, hvor bundlinjen er en forventning om et plusafkast på aktier i 2016. Selvom billedet stille og roligt er ved at krakelere efter en rystende svag start i 2016, er det påfaldende at de store investeringsfonde, som typisk forvalter kapital for professionelle pensionskasser, har et langt mere nuanceret eller negativt syn på tingene.

Eksempelvis skriver Blackrock om udsigterne for 2016, at Blackrock vurderer, at de stigende aktiekurser i høj grad har været drevet af selskabernes egne aktieopkøb, der har boostet earning per share: ”Companies around the world are shrinking their share count. They have been issuing debt on the cheap, and are using the proceeds to buy back their own shares and acquire other companies. This is rational when credit is easy and growth opportunities are scarce. Tightening financial conditions would make it less attractive for companies to tap the corporate debt markets and cannibalize their own shares. How would companies then grow earnings? A return to top-line growth (higher revenues) is key — especially for markets where valuations are high, such as the U.S. This is why we believe the business cycle will play a big role in 2016 investment outcomes.”

Hovedparten af aktiegevinsterne i 2015 ses altså drevet af multiple ekspansion, dvs. højere p/e-værdier og øgede udbytter. ” Most equity markets have been running on empty in 2015, with multiple expansion (a rising price-to-earnings ratio) and dividends hiding sins such as flat or falling earnings. Multiple expansion accounted for two-thirds of the 17% gain in European equities year-to-date.”

Vanguard skriver om 2016, at “most significantly, the high-growth “Goldilocks” era enjoyed by many emerging markets over the past 15 years is over. We anticipate “sustained fragility” for global trade and manufacturing, given China’s ongoing rebalancing and until structural, business-model adjustment occurs across emerging markets. We do not anticipate a Chinese recession in the near term, but China’s investment slowdown represents the greatest downside risk to the global economy.”

Flertallet af de store internationale finanshuse ser aktiemarkederne slutte 2016 over de tidligere toppe for S&P 500 indeks. Men alle analyserne opremser også scenarier, som omfatter makroøkonomiske, finansielle og geopolitiske risici. Credit-Suisse skriver i en Investment Outlook, at finanshuset ser moderat økonomisk vækst, lav inflation og nogenlunde investeringsafkast fremad. Men afsnittet fra side 36 om potentielle risici er dog mest interessant. For rigtig meget kan tilsyneladende gå galt i forhold til Credit-Suisses basisscenarie. Blandt andet fremhæves “first sub-scenario with a medium likelihood – intensified weakness in emerging markets, spreading to a limited extent to developed countries, but not causing outright global recession”, og dernæst nævnes et risikoscenarie med “stronger-than-expected developed economies: This would cause accelerated Fed tightening and fasterthan expected recovery in some emerging markets. We view this with a low-to-medium likelihood.”

Næsten samme gå-med-livrem-og-seler scenarier opstiller de andre finanshuse: Morgan Stanley skriver i sit 2016-Outlook, at finanshuset ser fire FED-renteforhøjelser i år og stabil økonomisk vækst i USA. Videre hedder det, at ”historically, equities outperform at this stage of the cycle. That may not hold true this time. Chalk it up to weaker growth, looser central bank policies and larger credit-risk premiums. Debt-funded deals and share buybacks have resulted in wider (relatively speaking) spreads for US investment-grade bonds; as this activity subsides, spreads could narrow.” Billedet svarer nogenlunde til det, de andre store finanshuse tegner om udviklingen i 2016, blandt andet Goldman Sachs , Bank of America , Societe Ge- nerale , og Deutsche Bank .

Mest interessant er dog, at de fleste finanshuses stor Outlook 2016 forudsigelser er udarbejdet i starten af december 2015, hvor aktiemarkederne stadig var nogenlunde stabile. Efter den værste start på et nyt aktieår i årtier, begynder stadig flere finanshuse at ryste på hånden. De seneste uger er der kommet anderledes dystre forudsigelser for 2016 fra blandt andet UBS , Bank of America , JP Morgan og UBS (igen).

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Morten W. Langer