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Norwegian afslører detaljer i redningsplan: Her er vores opdaterede kursmål

Morten W. Langer

lørdag 16. januar 2021 kl. 15:08

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i tidligere analyser på baggrund af de summariske oplysninger, som ledelsen tidligere har fremlagt, givet skøn for en fremtidig fair værdi på aktier i Norwegian. Nu har ledelsen fremlagt nye oplysninger, som giver lidt mere kød på regnestykket. Det vil vi gennemgå nedenfor. Vores tidligere skøn ligger ganske tæt på det nu opdaterede skøn.

Fremlæggelsen af planen blev ikke godt modtaget i markedet, hvor NAS aktien dykkede 15 % – fra 69 til 62 NOK.

Teknisk ser vi dette billede:

Teknisk ser vi kursen i første omfang teste 40 NOK.

Når det går op for markedet, at der sker en 19x udvanding af de aktuelle aktionærer, er der lagt op til yderligere kursfald.

Norwegian ledelse skriver direkte i børsmeddelelsen, at:

Existing shareholders who take no action will be diluted to approx. 5 % of the
post-restructuring share capital of NAS, pursuant to the authorisations
approved at the general meeting of the company on 17 December 2020

Med andre ord forventer ledelsen at der udstedes 19 x flere aktier, end der er i dag. Aktuelt er der 40 mio. aktier og efter kapitalplanen forventes der at være 760 mio. aktier. 

Med en skønnet børsværdi efter restruktureringen på 10 mia. NOK for NAS svarer det til, at hver aktie får en værdi på 13 kr. SAS’ aktuelle børsværdi er 12,5 mia. SEK.

Vi skønner, at balanceprisen for NAS aktier efter restruktureringen bliver mellem 8 og 18 NOK. 

 

Regnestykket er dog ikke helt så enkelt, at nuværende aktionærer også får tildelt tegningsretter.

Disse tegningsretter kan godt have en værdi, som kan give en indtægt ved salg eller ved tegning af nye aktier.

Vores forventning er, at tegningsretterne næppe vil kunne sælges for mere end et par kroner på grund af stort udbud.

Desuden må forventes storudsalg af nye NAS aktier efter kapitalplanens gennemførelse, da obligationsejere, der får aktier, antageligt vil sælge dem hurtigt – og dermed potentielt presse prisen.

Fra Norwegian:

INDICATIVE TERM SHEET FOR RIGHTS OFFERING AND RESTRUCTURING OF DEBT
1. Options for existing shareholders
Existing shareholders of the NAS Group have the following options:
a. Take no action
Existing shareholders who take no action will be diluted to approx. 5 % of the
post-restructuring share capital of NAS, pursuant to the authorisations
approved at the general meeting of the company on 17 December 2020. For
further information on post-restructuring ownership, please see section 3
below.
b. Subscribe for new shares in the rights offering
Existing shareholders as of a date to be determined by the board of directors
will receive tradeable subscription rights in a rights offering raising gross
proceeds of NOK 400 million, and may exercise such rights at a price to be
determined based on the contributions and post-restructuring ownership
interests set out in sections 3 and 4 below.
2. Options for existing creditors
Existing creditors of the NAS Group have the following options:
a. Take no action
Existing creditors who take no action will receive a dividend from the
Examinership and Reconstruction (as defined below) in the form of a
subordinated hybrid loan with no representations, undertakings or default
provisions (the Old Capital Hybrid Loan), to be issued to each creditor once
their claims are finally determined. The Old Capital Hybrid Loan will have a
maturity date of 10 years after the issue date, and shall for a limited period
be convertible into shares of NAS: 50% of each Old Capital Hybrid Loan will be
convertible into shares from the date falling 60 days after NAS’s expected
emergence from the Examinership and Reconstruction, and the remaining 50%
will be convertible from the date falling a further 14 days thereafter. In each
case, the conversion right will expire at close of business Oslo on 30 August
2021. The conversion price for the Old Capital Hybrid Loan shall be determined
based on the contributions and post-restructuring ownership interests set out
in section 3 below. NAS will propose that the foregoing be implemented by
way of the examinership granted by the High Court of Ireland 7 December 2020
(the Examinership) and/or the reconstruction of NAS granted by Oslo Probate
Court on 8 December 2020 (the Reconstruction).
b. Subscribe for the New Capital Perpetual Bond
All existing creditors will be invited to contribute new money to NAS by way of
subscribing for the New Capital Perpetual Bond (as described in section 6
below). Subscribers in the New Capital Perpetual Bond shall have their existing
#9602873/10 2 (5)
claims against the NAS Group (as determined by the Examiner and/or the
Reconstructor) in an amount equal to 150 % of their subscription of New Capital
Perpetual Bonds converted into non-amortising and interest-free bonds that
shall be repaid in full on 30 December 2026 (Interest Free Bonds, as further
described in section 5 below). The minimum subscription amount for the New
Capital Perpetual Bonds will be the equivalent of EUR 100,000 in NOK.
c. Subscribe for new shares in the private placement (creditors with claims
not exceeding EUR 100,000 only)
Creditors that together with their affiliates and related parties held claims
against the NAS Group not exceeding EUR 100,000 (or an equivalent amount in
another currency) as of 8 December 2020 may subscribe for new shares in a
private placement, at a price to be determined based on the contributions and
post-restructuring ownership interests set out in section 3 below. Creditors
who so subscribe shall have their existing claims against the NAS Group (as
determined by the Examiner and/or the Reconstructor) in an amount equal to
150 % of their subscription for shares converted into Interest Free Bonds.
Please see sections 4 and 5 below for further information on the private
placement and Interest Free Bonds, respectively.
d. Treatment of customers with ticket refund claims
NAS will seek to establish a solution for customers eligible for ticket refunds
prior to 18 November 2020 who have not yet had their claim resolved through
their credit card issuer or NAS.
3. Proposed post restructuring ownership
Investor Percentage Amount (MNOK)
New Investors (in the rights offering,
private placement and New Capital
Perpetual Bonds)
Approx. 70 % [4,000 – 5,000]
Impaired creditors Approx. 25 % [●]1
Existing shareholders Approx. 5 %
Total: 100 %
4. Rights offering and private placement
Existing shareholders as of a date to be determined by the board of directors will
receive tradeable subscription rights in a rights offering raising gross proceeds of NOK
400 million.
1 Existing creditors of NAS shall receive a dividend in the Examinership and Restructuring in the form of Old Capital Hybrid
Loans, convertible into shares on or before 30 August 2021. Assuming all debt claims are finally determined, and all of the
resulting Old Capital Hybrid Loans are converted to shares before 30 August 2021, the impaired creditors will receive shares
totalling approx. 25% of the post-restructuring company.
#9602873/10 3 (5)
In addition, certain investors will be offered new shares in a private placement which,
together with the issuance of New Capital Perpetual Bonds (as described in section 6
below), aims to raise gross proceeds of NOK 4 – 5 billion.
The subscription price in respect of the rights offering and private placement shall be
determined based on the contributions and post-restructuring ownership interests set
out in section 3 above.
As set out in option c. of section 2 above, certain minority creditors of the NAS Group
may participate in the private placement. Creditors who do so shall have their existing
claims against the NAS Group (as determined by the Examiner and/or the
Reconstructor) in an amount equal to 150 % of their subscription converted into
Interest Free Bonds (as described in section 5 below).
Subscription for shares in the rights offering or private placement shall be subject to
each investor providing satisfactory KYC information.
5. Interest Free Bonds
As set out in options b. and c. of section 2 above, creditors that subscribe for New
Capital Perpetual Bonds or (in the case of certain minority creditors only) participate
in the private placement shall have their existing claims against the NAS Group (as
determined by the Examiner and/or the Reconstructor) in an amount equal to 150% of
their subscription converted into Interest Free Bonds.
The Interest Free Bonds will be non-amortising and interest-free bonds that shall be
repaid in full on 30 December 2026. The bond terms will not include any
representations, undertakings or default provisions, but will otherwise be based on the
standard Nordic Bond Terms template for corporate issuers as maintained and
published by Nordic Trustee AS. The bonds will be issued in the currency of the debt
from which they were converted, and will not be converted to Old Capital Hybrid Loans
as described in section 2 above.
6. New Capital Perpetual Bonds
As set out in option b. of section 2 above, creditors will be offered to contribute new
money to NAS by way of subscribing in cash for perpetual bonds on the following terms
(New Capital Perpetual Bonds):
Conversion Price: The higher of i) [●]2 and ii) 95 % of the arithmetic average of the
daily volume weighted average price of a NAS share on each of the 30 consecutive
dealing days up to and including the last dealing day prior to the conversion notice
being submitted to NAS.
Conversion period: The New Capital Perpetual Bonds shall be convertible from the
date that is 30 days after the initial issue date of the New Capital Perpetual Bonds,
subject to that, in the event that any creditor (together with its affiliates and related
parties) subscribes in an amount of bonds in excess of NOK 30 million, the Conversion
2 Conversion Price to be determined based on the contributions and post-restructuring ownership interests set out in section 3
above.
#9602873/10 4 (5)
Period in respect of such excess bonds shall commence on 1 April 2023. The Conversion
Period shall continue until the outstanding bonds are redeemed in full.
Continuation of existing debt: Each subscribing creditor’s existing claim against the
NAS Group (as determined by the Examiner and/or the Reconstructor) in an amount
equal to 150 % of the New Capital Perpetual Bonds subscribed for will be converted
into Interest Free Bonds (as described in section 5 above).
PIK interest: 6-month NIBOR plus: i) for year 1, 250 bps; ii) for years 2 and 3, 350 bps;
iii) for years 4 and 5, 500 bps; iv) for years 6 and 7, 700 bps; and v) for year 8 and
after, 950 bps, to be settled through the issuance of additional New Capital Perpetual
Bonds or increase of the principal amount in accordance with the applicable
regulations of the CSD.
Dividend restriction: No declaration or making of dividend, interest or other
distributions or payments (including by way of repurchase) in respect of junior or parity
obligations, at any time while the New Capital Perpetual Bonds (including PIK bonds)
remain outstanding.
Tenor: Perpetual with no scheduled maturity date.
Maximum issue amount: NOK 2.5 billion.
Use of proceeds: General corporate purposes.
Status: Fully subordinated to all other debt liabilities, senior to ordinary share capital
and pari passu with most senior ranking class of preference share (if any). No right of
set-off.
Redemption at the option of the Issuer: At any time, at 100% of par together with
accrued interest not yet capitalis.

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