USA’s Conference Board: Største fald i 60 år

Nu begynder covid-krisen for alvor at slå igennem på de ledende indikatorer og hårde nøgletal. Heller ikke i Europa er der indikationer på en positiv vending, men i Kina er der ved at ske en stabilisering. Næste skridt bliver, om der kan afkodes bedring i de ledende indikatorer fra den forventede gradvise åbning af samfundene.

Conference Board skriver om sin ledende indikator : ”In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history. The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming from initial claims for unemployment insurance and stock prices.” Seneste estimat fra Atlanta Fed lyder på en negative BNP-vækst i andet kvartal på 12 procent, mens finanshusene tror på minus 25 procent.

Tilsvarende har Conference Boards forbrugertillid taget et styrtdyk, men forventningsindikatoren har senest taget en lille positiv vending: ”The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ shortterm outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – improved from 86.8 in March to 93.8 this month. Consumer confidence weakened significantly in April, driven by a severe deterioration in current conditions. The 90-point drop in the Present Situation Index, the largest on record, reflects the sharp contraction in economic activity and surge in unemployment claims brought about by the COVID-19 crisis. Consumers’ short-term expectations for the economy and labor market improved, likely prompted by the possibility that stay-at-home restrictions will loosen soon, along with a re-opening of the economy.”

For en uge siden lød meldingen fra tyske IFO meget nedslående: ”Sentiment at German companies is catastrophic. The ifo Business Climate Index crashed from 85.9 points1 in March to 74.3 points in April. This is the lowest value ever recorded, and never before has the index fallen so drastically. This is primarily due to the massive deterioration in the current situation. Companies have never been so pessimistic about the coming months. The coronavirus crisis is striking the German economy with full fury. In manufacturing, the Business Climate Index has fallen to its lowest value since March 2009. Industrial companies’ current business situation worsened dramatically. Expectations are marked by extreme pessimism. The expectations indicator fell to a historic low. Demand for industrial products has collapsed.”

Den seneste PMI-måling for Kina viser, at den kinesiske eksport nu for alvor rammes af nedlukningen af den vestlige verden: ”After broadly stabilising in March, operating conditions across China’s manufacturing sector weakened slightly in April. The recent easing of measures to halt the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic underpinned a further rise in output. However, the impact of the virus globally led to a substantial drop in export sales, which drove a further decline in total new work.”