Resume af teksten:
Aktiemarkederne har genvundet tabene siden Iran-krigens begyndelse, med både S&P 500 og Nasdaq Composite nående nye rekorder. Bekymringer om energiforsyningsforstyrrelser er til stede, men USA og Iran arbejder på de-eskalering. Alternative handelsruter uden om Mellemøsten bidrager til løsning af energiflaskehalse. Investorer står over for risici uden for det finansielle system, såsom politiske og geopolitiske hændelser. Strategier skal fokusere på diversifikation og fleksibilitet, herunder at se mod ikke-amerikanske aktiver og tangible forretningsmodeller. Guld forbliver en vigtig sikring mod økonomisk usikkerhed, med centralbankers guldreserver nu højere end deres beholdning af amerikanske statsobligationer. Den aktuelle energi- og geopolitiske situation kan medføre normalisering, hvilket kan favorisere ikke-amerikanske aktiver.
Fra Julius Bär:
An equity investor who has not reviewed the value of their investments since the outbreak of the war would, based on market performance alone, find it difficult to infer what has transpired in the Middle East in the interim. That is unless their portfolio includes direct or indirect exposure to oil & gas. Both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index have fully recouped their losses since the start of the Iran war, reaching new record highs. Global equities have followed suit, building on their strong performance at the beginning of the year.
While a remote likelihood of re-escalation in light of the lack of a permanent resolution in the Iran conflict persists, the initial emotion caused by the shock has dissipated in markets and there is a lack of convincing arguments that we are heading towards an imminent global recession or inflation spike. The risk to prolonged energy supply chain disruptions bears watching, but both the US and Iran have clear incentives to push for further de-escalation. Meanwhile, alternative trade routes away from the Middle East are being rapidly established, helping to alleviate the energy bottlenecks. This argues for a normalisation of risk in portfolios.
Navigating external shocks: How to position your portfolio
The key takeaway is that today’s primary risks are situated outside the financial system : political and geopolitical incidents, wars, pandemics, or natural disasters. By definition, you cannot anticipate those. Also, they are not priced in a way you can gauge risks from credit spreads or interest rate differentials. They are fundamentally binary, either they happen or not. As an investor, you can therefore only act reactively and amend positioning when they happen.
The challenge of navigating this environment is compounded by the prevailing market structure. With a majority of market participants effectively valuation‑agnostic, including retail investors, algorithmic trading, and flows from passive investment vehicles, flows and technicals overpower fundamentals in the short term.
Against this backdrop, investors must organise themselves to participate sufficiently in the market upside, as this remains the best protection against the infrequent but inevitable downturns. Portfolio flexibility is key in an ever-changing investment environment. Investors should focus on further diversification– away from the US in favour of other developed economies and emerging markets, from intangible to tangible-based business models as well as, potentially, on strategies capitalising on market volatility spikes.
Gold remains a core portfolio hedge
Meanwhile, a notable deviation of our current portfolio positioning from our strategic asset allocation (SAA) is an overweight position in gold. We remain comfortable with this exposure, as the yellow metal continues to be supported by several structural factors, notably the weaponisation of Western capital markets and the rising indebtedness of G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) governments. In other words, gold remains an essential hedge against continued G7 fiat currency debasement. It is also worth highlighting that gold’s share of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves is approaching 30%, surpassing the share held in US Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years. That said, the current consolidation phase may extend for a while, as gold remains vulnerable to profit-taking in the case of sharp increases in US dollar liquidity demand – as recently observed at the onset of the war.
Amid the broad variety of unknowns in today’s geopolitical environment, there is one lesson that can safely be taken for granted: the Iran war is yet another indication that the post-World-War-II, US-led, rules-based world order has effectively ceased to exist. As self-sufficiency across a broad range of areas becomes a matter of national security in major economies, choke points that control access to critical resources – such as the Strait of Hormuz – are increasingly vulnerable to weaponisation. No global power can sustain undisputed military dominance without a robust domestic industrial base and secure critical supply chains.
Global diversification remains key
Although European and emerging markets are affected disproportionately more in the short term by rising energy prices, we do not believe in a return to the US-asset-dominance regime that prevailed until the end of 2024. The current relative strength of US assets is likely to prove temporary, reflecting the exceptional circumstances created by the current energy crisis. As these circumstances normalise, we expect the relative performance pendulum to swing back in favour of non-US equities, precious metals, and strategic commodities and resources – akin to the dynamics observed in January and February of this year. Early signs that this reversal is gaining traction are already visible when observing the US dollar. The US Dollar Index has retreated to below the 99 level, already unwinding some of its gains from March. In a historical context, the 2%–3% appreciation since the start of the Iran war is relatively modest compared with similar geopolitical incidents, as scepticism regarding the US dollar’s safe-haven status has persisted.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
