Resume af teksten:
I marts påvirkede spændinger i Mellemøsten den schweiziske franc med stigende pres for at værdiappreciere. Den Schweiziske Nationalbank (SNB) signalerede en vilje til at intervenere i valutamarkedet for at modvirke dette. SNB vurderes at have købt mellem CHF 2-2,5 milliarder i udenlandsk valuta i marts. Franc-værdien er siden faldet i forhold til både euro og dollar. Den britiske pund har styrket sig mod dollaren og euroen til trods for svag økonomi i Storbritannien. Markedsforventningerne til BoE er blevet skærpet efter konflikten i Iran. Politisk usikkerhed og raterisici kan dog føre til svækkelse af pundet fremadrettet. Verdens olieforsyninger opretholdes på trods af konflikten, og alternativer er blevet fundet til at sikre forsyningerne. Konflikten er fortsat et politisk snarere end et teknisk problem i oliesektoren.
Fra Julius Bär:
Swiss franc: Words followed by action
In early March, escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered strong upwards pressure on the Swiss franc, which is globally considered as a safe haven. In response, the SNB explicitly signalled a greater willingness to intervene in the FX market to prevent a rapid and excessive appreciation – a message reiterated at its March policy meeting. Balance sheet developments suggest that this was more than just verbal intervention. Our estimates suggest that the SNB purchased around CHF2bn–2.5bn of foreign currency in March. This appears moderate compared with past intervention episodes and corresponds to around half the volume the SNB bought in April 2025, when President Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcements shook markets and triggered a sharp appreciation pressure on the franc. That said, our estimates only provide a rough gauge and cannot capture the full picture of intra-month interventions. We will receive confirmation from the SNB only at the end of June, when it publishes its quarterly FX transactions for Q1.
Since early March, the Swiss franc has eased and is now trading lower than before the war in Iran against both the euro and the US dollar. The easing likely reflects a combination of a moderation in safe‑haven demand and rising interest rate expectations for the ECB and the Fed in reaction to higher energy prices.
Looking ahead, we expect foreign exchange interventions to remain the SNB’s primary tool to counter sharp, safe-haven-driven appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc. We continue to expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% throughout 2026 and 2027 and maintain our EUR/CHF 12-month target of 0.92.
British pound: Strength despite weak fundamentals
The British pound has shown notable resilience so far this year, appreciating around 0.5% against the US dollar and 0.8% versus the euro. This performance is surprising given the UK’s sluggish cyclical backdrop and weak fundamentals. Instead, sterling strength appears largely driven by a hawkish reassessment of Bank of England (BoE) policy expectations following the conflict in Iran. Among G10 central banks, the repricing of BoE expectations has been the most pronounced, with markets shifting by roughly 125 basis points at one point, from two rate cuts priced for 2026 to as many as three hikes. Although this repricing has moderated, it remains striking. UK monetary policy is still moderately restrictive at the margin, implying less need for aggressive tightening than in economies closer to neutral. Moreover, the UK is less exposed to energy price shocks due to lower import dependence, while weak demand and a soft labour market reduce the risk of second-round inflation effects. Against this backdrop, we expect the BoE to likely hold rates steady this year, although the outlook remains highly contingent on the duration of the war and persistently elevated energy prices.
Beyond excessive monetary policy pricing, political developments represent another headwind. Recent controversies, including the ‘Mandelson scandal’, have undermined Prime Minister Starmer’s credibility and weighed on Labour’s popularity. Polling suggests significant Labour losses, increasing the risk of a leadership challenge and political uncertainty. Both the unwinding of excessive rate hike expectations and rising political risks point to modest pound weakness ahead, supporting a softer outlook with a EUR/GBP target of 0.88.
Why the world is not running out of fuel
Two months into the conflict, the market might be focusing on the fact that world oil supplies are holding up surprisingly well, thanks to alternative routes, and yes, thanks to some demand destruction. There is more breathing room to endure the conflict than expected.
The world is not running out of fuel just yet, even though some headlines suggest otherwise. The lack of visibility during the crisis – the proverbial ‘fog of war’ – is not only about geopolitics. The oil market is about to conclude a supply chain re-plugging of unprecedented proportions, thereby testing uncharted territory. This re-plugging, while poorly visible at the moment, nevertheless has visible effects. It helped Australia to maintain diesel supplies despite early warnings, and it will help Europe to maintain jet fuel supplies.
Of course, there is no way out of the crisis without solving the Hormuz trade impasse. However, solving this gridlock by finding a face-saving off-ramp is a political challenge. The conflict has not yet evolved into an engineering challenge, where oil wells and export terminals must be rebuilt at great scale due to war damage. For now, it seems as if we can once again rely on resilience. Thanks to efficiency gains and inflation trends, the oil price pain threshold is much higher than perceived and well above today’s price levels.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
