Det er blevet sværere at låne penge i Europa. ABN Amro refererer til en analyse fra ECB’s kvartalsmæssige undersøgelse over banklån, BLS, og den viser, at betingelserne for banklån er blevet strammet, og at udlånene til virksomhederne er faldet under pandemien – bortset fra starten på krisen. Det skyldes, at den langvarige pandemi har øget risikoen ved udlån. Det interessante er, at de mindre virksomheder ikke er ramt hårdere end de store, fordi de europæiske lande målrettet pumpede penge ud til de mindre virksomheder i pandemiens start. Undersøgelsen viser også, at virksomhedernes låneefterspørgsel er faldet, især til faste investeringer.
ECB’s BLS signals a drop in business investment
Euro Macro: Banks tighten lending standards, while loan demand declines –
The ECB published the results of its latest quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS) for 2021Q1 yesterday. It showed that banks, on balance, tightened credit standards on loans to companies further, albeit that the balance of net tightening declined.
Indeed, the difference between the percentage of banks reporting tightening of standards minus the percentage reporting easing was 7% in Q1, down from 25% in 2020Q4. Standards have been tightened on a sustained basis since the start of the pandemic in 2020Q1. The forward looking part of the survey suggest that credit standards will be tightened further in Q2 (balance expected to be 5%).
Similar to the results of the previous four quarters, banks reported that the tightening of credit standards was mainly due to the change in risk perceptions related to the deteriorating general economic as well as the firm-specific situation.
According to the written statement by the ECB, this reflects banks’ ‘continued concerns regarding borrowers’ creditworthiness given the length of the pandemic and the impact of containment measures on firms’ business in several sectors of the economy’.
The detailed data shows that the differences between the net tightening of standards on loans to SMEs and large firms was limited (at 7% and 5%, respectively in Q1), which seems to be thanks to the ‘beneficial impact of public support measures especially for SMEs, given the typically higher credit risk associated with the latter also due to their potentially opaque balance sheets’.
Finally, the details of the report show that banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet situation had a neutral impact on credit standards in Q1, as they were supported by ‘monetary policy accommodation, supervisory capital relief measures and higher resilience of banks’ balance sheets’.
Finally, the BLS report mentions in net terms, 8% of the banks reported an increase in the share of rejected loan applications for loans to firms in Q1 (after a net percentage of 2% in Q4). The rise in net loan rejections may be related to the smaller share of loans granted with public guarantees in the first quarter of 2021, according to the report.
Credit standards on loans to companies and loan demand
net balance
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN Amro Group Economics
Bank loans to non-financial companies
EUR bn
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN Amro Group Economics
Turning to demand for loans, banks reported, on balance, a further decline in firms’ demand for loans or for drawing of credit lines in Q1 (net percentage -20%, after -12% in 2020Q4). This is the third consecutive quarter for which banks reported a net decrease in loan demand, following the extraordinarily high loan demand in 2020Q2.
The decline in loan demand corresponds broadly with the observed lower realised loan flows to non-financial corporations in recent months (see graph above). The net decline in loan demand was stronger for SMEs (net percentage of -26%) than for large firms (-19%). Banks reported that the decline in loan demand continued to be mainly driven by a dampening impact of firms’ demand for financing fixed investment (balance -21%, after -22% in 2020Q4). Indeed, a decline in fixed investment in 2021Q1 would be in line with our scenario for the eurozone economy.
