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Uddrag fra Bank of America

BofA’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, who could not have timed his market bottom call any better at the end of March, with the S&P now up more than 17% since…

…  begins his latest Flow Show note, by pointing out a curious combination: US stocks are annualizing 20%, gold is annualizing 30%, both tracking rare “big stuff”, 4th year of double-digit gains – something, which only happens for stocks during war (’42-’45), peace (’49-’52), bubble (’95-’99), and for gold, only during stagflation (’71-’74 & ’77-’80). In other words, we have a bubbly war/peace stagflation on our hands.

Turning to the most notable macro events, Hartnett writes that this is the first time since Nov 2023 that DM central bank rate hikes are outpacing cuts. While EM rate cuts are still outpacing hikes, they are doing so by smallest amount since Aug’23.

Meanwhile, the double-top in coming weeks in the NYSE index (best Wall St barometer) is the “big tell” central banks are turning hawkish quick to counter the nominal boom.

From macro to micro, Hartnett then turns to one of the market’s less memorable sectors (it is neither tech not energy) predicting a rosy future for the materials sector, which is just 2% of S&P 500, close to 30-year lows.

But thanks to the “geopolitical grab for resources, military spending, AI capex boom, housing shortages, bubble barbell of “hubris” & “humiliation”, Hartnett calls “materials the new bull on the block.”

Some more details: the biggest 2026 outperformers are commodities, EM, tech, small/mid- cap; While the tech bull is not new, commodities, Emerging Markets, small cap all enjoying bullish secular turning points…

… thanks to surging US nominal GDP (in the midst of 7-year 75% surge, consensus now predicts nominal GDP up 5.5% in ‘26, EPS up 20%).

Here, the BofA strategist reiterates that materials are set to join new bulls on the block “driven by global geopolitical grab for natural resources, $750bn and rising AI capex boom, global defense spend approaching $3tn, US housing shortage of over 4 million units, and stealth China FX appreciation”…

Also note: the steel ETF is testing its pre-GFC 2008 high.

Hartnett then adds that “materials also are the candidate to pair in an optimal bubble barbell strategy of long “hubris” (AI & chips today) & long “humiliation” (out-of-favor, distressed cyclical plays lifted by final bubble surge in nominal GDP, e.g. EM in ’99 internet mania, oil in ‘07/’08 subprime/China bubble).:

The BofA strategist concludes that materials, consumer, China, UK are all unloved potential pairs with chip mania; but humiliated bonds won’t work… As for AI Big 10, we are now at peak bubble levels, accounting for 40% of S&P 500 market cap, close to peak concentration levels for Nifty Fifty in ‘70s, Japan in 80s, internet in ’90 (but not railroads in 1880s).

As for how this latest boom/bubble ends, history points to one key trigger recurring over and over: a surge in bond yields (UST yields +200bps to end Nifty 50 bubble, JGB yields +230bps to end Japan bubble, UST +260bps in ’99).

Finally, for those who only read Hartnett for his fund flow data, here is the latest weekly: $136bn to cash (most since Jan 2026), $25.9bn to bonds, $2.6bn to stocks, $1.9bn to crypto, $1.2bn from gold. And here are the main flows to Know:

• Cash: $136.0bn inflow, largest since Jan’26 
• IG bonds: $16.4bn inflow, largest since Jan’26 
• TIPS: $1.4bn inflow, largest since Apr’25,
• EM equities: $11.6bn outflow, largest since Jan’26,
• China equities: $9.8bn outflow, 6th week of outflows ($47.5bn),
• Europe equities: $2.1bn outflow, 4th week of outflows ($11.3bn),
• Consumer: $1.1bn outflow, largest since Dec’25.