Fra Atlanta Fed:
Latest estimate: 0.2 percent — October 27, 2021
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.2 percent on October 27, down from 0.5 percent on October 19. After the October 19 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 2.1 percent to 0.8 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 9.0 percent to 9.3 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.56 percentage points to -1.81 percentage points.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 will be on Friday, October 29. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.