Fra Danske Bank:
We adjust our Fed call and now expect the next policy changes to be 25bp rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027. Previously, we expected the Fed to cut rates down to 3.00-3.25%.
US nominal growth outlook has improved more than we expected previously. Importantly, the shift has not been driven by just the war in Iran and instead we think that demand-factors are fuelling more structural inflation.
Downside risks to labour markets have eased, AI-driven investment demand continues to fuel both real growth and inflation, and fiscal policy is slipping towards expansionary direction. Lending growth has also improved, suggesting that current level of policy rates is no longer firmly restrictive.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
